New York Jets (3-3, 3-3 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-4, 3-3 ATS), Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Week 7, Sunday, Oct. 25th, 4:15 PM Eastern, CBS
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Jets -6/ Raiders +6
Over/Under: 34 1/2
An old AFL rivalry that conjures up images of Namath-to-Maynard, Lamonica-to-Smith, and a little girl named Heidi renews itself when the New York Jets cross-country to Oakland to take on the Raiders Sunday afternoon.
Most online sportsbooks opened New York as a road favorite of from 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 points over Oakland, with an over/under of from 34-35. As of Wednesday morning the Raiders had been bet down to +6 at most NFL betting outlets, with most totals still hovering right around 34 1/2.
The Jets are also moneylined at right around -270 at most NFL betting outlets, with Oakland getting +230 as home underdogs.
New York opened the Coach Ryan regime with with wins over Houston, New England and Tennessee, but has since lost three straight, at New Orleans and Miami and, last week, at home in overtime to Buffalo 16-13.
So at 3-3, the Jets are one game back of the first-place Patriots in the AFC East.
Oakland, meanwhile, opened this season with a tough home loss to San Diego, then won at Kansas City. But three straight losses, to Denver, Houston and the Chargers, followed, in which the Raiders scored a collective 16 points. Last Sunday, though, Oakland became the first double-digit underdog of this NFL season to win outright, beating Philadelphia 13-9 while getting 14 points at home.
So at 2-4, the Raiders trail 6-0 Denver by four games already in the AFC West.
New York QB Mark Sanchez had one of those days rookies will have in this league Sunday vs. Buffalo, throwing five interceptions in a losing effort. On the season, the former USC Trojan has completed just 52% of his throws for 6.3 YPA, which is low, five touchdowns and 10 INTs, for a 56.7 passers rating. Which is not good.
The other QB in this match-up, former #1 overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell is still struggling at the pro level. So far this season the former LSU Tiger has hit on just 46% of his passes for 5.6 YPA, with two TDs and six INTs, and a pathetic 51.0 QB rating.
New York is outgaining opponents on average this season by a 319-303 YPG margin, and outrushing foes 163-116.
After ranking 10th in the league last year in rushing at 124 YPG, the Oakland running game has been limited to just 89 YPG so far this season. And defensively the Raiders are allowing 145 YPG on the ground. Overall, Oakland is getting outgained on average this season by a considerable 366-214 YPG margin.
The Jets rank 11th in the league in average time-of-possession at +2:30 per game, while the Raiders rank 31st at -6:52 pg.
These two teams met last year in week seven, when the Raiders pulled a 16-13 upset in overtime over the Brett Favre-led Jets. New York outrushed Oakland that day 242-153 and outgained ’em 418-344, but Favre threw a couple of INTs, and Raiders K Janikowski booted a 57-yarder late in OT to win the game.
The Raiders won outright that day as three-point home dogs, and the game never approached its over/under of 41.
In playing their one common opponent so far this season, the Jets won at Houston 24-7 opening weekend as 4 1/2-point underdogs, outgaining the Texans 462-183, while Oakland got plugged 29-6 in H-Town three weeks ago, getting outgained 329-165 and failing to cover as nine-point road dogs.
The totals are 2-4 in both Jets and Raiders games this year. New York’s games have averaged 36 total points, Oakland games just 34.
On the injury front the Jets lost NT Kris Jenkins for the season to a torn ACL Sunday. And the Raiders will likely be without both RB Darren McFadden (knee) and OL Robert Gallery (leg) Sunday.
The Jets are 1-4 both straight up and against the spread as favorites on the road the last two seasons, while Oakland is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS as home dogs.
Through the first six weeks of NFL betting action this year, NFL home underdogs are 9-19 straight up, and 13-15 vs. the pointspreads.
The Sagarin PURE POINTS ratings at USAToday.com rate the Jets at 23.8, the Raiders at 9.7. Factoring in Sagarin’s updated NFL home-field advantage figure of 1.2, which is as low as we’ve ever seen it, and New York is a 13-point road favorite over Oakland on the Sagarin line.
Z-Man’s Pick: The Raiders beating the Eagles means absolutely nothing. This team still stinks. Tough spot for the Jets though. I think Jets pull it out but don’t cover the six. Take the Raiders plus the points.