New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers Preview and Pick – Week 3 Monday Night Football Picks

New York Jets (1-1) +9, 44 O/U at San Diego Chargers (0-2) -9, 44 O/
U, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif., 8:30 PM Eastern, Monday

by Badger of

One week after watching the Eagles and Cowboys battle in one of the most exciting Monday Night Football games in a long while, fans will
get to enjoy another well-hyped matchup this week as Brett Favre
makes his return to primetime when the New York Jets travel to
Qualcomm Stadium to meet the surprisingly winless San Diego Chargers.

The Jets seem to still be only using part of the playbook with their
new signal caller Favre, as their vanilla offensive scheme (i.e.
three straight runs with 1st-and-goal) was shut down in their 19-10
loss at home to the New England Patriots last weekend. The limited
playbook was good enough to beat Miami in week one, but now the Jets
will go into their second straight week with a serious challenge on
their hands and the ageless gunslinger is itchin to toss it around.

Just about everyones trendy pick to win the AFC in the preseason,
the Chargers got screwed on the road in Denver (39-38) last Sunday to
drop to 0-2 for the season. While it may not yet be a must-win game
to get back into the thick of the AFC West race and the AFC race in
general, than its just a smidge below must-win.

Oddsmakers opened the game with the Chargers as 7.5-point home favorites, but early action moved the line quickly to the Bolts minus
9 points. A few offshore sportsbooks, specifically 5Dimes,
actually list the Chargers as 10-point faves.

The over/under total opened at 44 and seems to be holding steady, while the early moneyline bet lists the Chargers as -410 with the
Jets as +370 underdogs on the road.

The Jets offensive troubles last week dropped them to 25th overall in the NFL in total yards the first two weeks (274.5), just slightly
higher then their 26th rank in points scored at just 15 per game.

So far the Jets improved offensive line has provided some holes for
the running game (108 ypg 17th), but for some reason the passing
game lags behind at just 166.5 yards per game (19th). But look for
Favre to open it up this week in the air, since the Chargers sport
the leagues 31st-ranked passing defense at nearly 300 yards per game

The Chargers meanwhile have been exactly what was predicted on
offense explosive and balanced. Overall the Bolts are 5th in the
league in total yards (386 ypg), 4th in passing (293.5 ypg), and 5th
in scoring at a 31-points-per-game clip. Most of the offense has come
without LaDainian Tomlinson and a running game too, as he has been at
less than 100 percent with a bad toe and they have averaged less than
100 per game through two (92.5).

The difference between these two in the first two weeks seems to be their ability to play defense. The Chargers are ranked 30th in total
defense (437.0) and have yet to really play much of it with or
without Shawne Merriman, while the Jets are 8th in the league (268.5
ypg) and are especially stingy against the run (76.5 ypg 6th) in
the early going.

These two teams have met just nine times since the 1989 season (the
last a 31-26 Chargers win in November of 2005), with the Jets
enjoying a slim 5-4 straight up record in the series. However, to
bettors it may be more important to note that the Jets have covered
the number in four straight and are 6-3 ATS in the series.

Other betting trends to watch for this game are conflicting.

San Diego is 7-1 ATS in their last eight at home in Qualcomm, but the
Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Jets are also 5-1
ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss.

The Chargers seem to put together big weeks in succession, as they are 4-0 ATS in their lat four games after passing for over 250 yards
the previous week and 4-1 ATS in their last five after scoring over
30 points the previous week.

The over/under betting trends point in the direction of the under:
the Jets have come in under the total in their last six games
overall, its 6-0 when the Jets play vs. AFC teams, 5-0 on grass and
4-1 in their last five road games. The Chargers have struggled in
their last four Monday night games (all under), but really seem to
put points on the board early in the season (over is 5-0 in last five
September games).