New York Jets (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 11th, 2012, 4:05 p.m. EST
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Wash.
TV: CBS/DirecTV 712
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ +6.5/SEA -6.5
Over/Under Total: 38.5
Seattle Seahawks fans have always made CenturyLink Field one of the loudest and hardest stadiums to play in for opponents, and now the team is starting to make it very dangerous on the field as well. The New York Jets will be the next to find out when they travel to play the Seahawks in an AFC-NFC week 10 clash this Sunday afternoon on CBS.
Seattle has won all four of their games in CenturyLink this season, including wins over the big boys Green Bay and New England, so it’s no surprise they dispatched of the Minnesota Vikings last weekend at home, 30-20. The Seahawks have used the same script in almost every game at home this season, the one that always ends with either a fourth quarter surge or a last-minute victory, but for the first time the Hawks were able to coast in the final six minutes of the Minnesota win.
The Jets come to town fresh off their bye week, and the bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Jets who have lost four of their last five including the game just before the bye in embarrassing fashion to the rival Miami Dolphins, 30-9. With a 3-5 start and a continuing lingering QB controversy, the Jets can go in either direction from this point of the season, but getting the ship straightened out on the road in Seattle is a huge task this week.
A task not too many in the sports betting world believe the Jets can pull off. Oddsmakers set the opening point spread with the Seahawks as 5.5-point favorites at home, and so much money came in on the Seattle that sportsbooks were forced to move the number up to minus -6.5 or even -7 to stop the run at the window. There’s been a little bit of a reversal with Jets money moving the number back down to -6 at some offshore sportsbooks, but the majority of bettors are siding with the Seahawks at home.
The over/under total opened at 38.5 and hasn’t moved an inch since its release.
The two offenses in this game are very similar in scheme pound the ball on the ground, play-action over the top, win the field position battle and play shutdown defense the problem is that only the Seahawks have been successful at it this season.
Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks have been able to run the ball (138.9 ypg - 7th), control the clock and control the amount of pressure on rookie QB Russell Wilson to do “too much.” The Seattle defense has been as good as advertised too, ranked 4th in the NFL in yards and 3rd in scoring by allowing just 17 points per game.
The Jets and their big back, Shonn Green, have found nothing but tough sledding all year (109.8 ypg - 14th) and it’s had a big effect on quarterback Mark Sanchez and his effectiveness. It doesn’t help much that the Jets have fallen behind by so much early in a lot of games (trailing Miami 20-0 at half), which has caused the Jets to abandon the run and have to pass it 50-plus times a game not Sanchez’s strength as a QB.
The Jets defense has also been racked by injury (Darrelle Revis, Kenrick Ellis, Sione Po’uha) and has given up huge yardage on the ground (141 ypg - 24th), not a good combination going into a game against Lynch and the Seahawks.
Since the AFC-NFC series only plays once every four seasons, these two haven’t met since a December meeting in 2008 in Seattle, a knock-down, drag-out 13-3 win by the Seahawks. Yes, that was the year Brett Favre played in New York, but he was outplayed by Seneca Wallace in a game that barely had 500 yards of offense from both teams.
But the Seahawks are only 2-8 straight up against the Jets (since 1985), and the Jets have also cashed betting tickets to the tune of 6-2-1 ATS over the same time frame.
The lack of head-to-head history has also made most of the betting trends for this game hard to come by (small sample size). If you are a trend bettor then you might consider the over, since it’s actually the over that is 8-3 in the Seahawks last 11 home games and 20-6 in the Jets last 26 games on the road.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Seattle Seahawks continue to offer great wagering value as a home team as Marshawn Lynch should run all over the Jets defensive front. This stadium is loud as hell which creates chaos for opposing offensive playcallers. Look for a slew of false start calls and an improving Seattle defense to beat the Jets by 2 touchdowns or more!
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