NFL 2023 Offensive Player of the Year Bets
It’s important to look at the history of the various awards in the NFL before getting involved with some wagers. Some of them are not simply a measure of excellence without any context. The Offensive Player of the Year award might be a slightly-less quarterback-centric accolade than others, including regular MVP, Super Bowl MVP, and others. But since 2010, there have been six QBs who won this, so it’s not like we rule them out. But in the last four seasons, we have seen three wide receivers and one running back haul in this award. Last season, a prolific season earned Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson the Offensive Player of the Year, with Cooper Kupp winning it the previous season.
One might notice that previous winners of this award come from teams that are at least somewhat in the mix. It might be slightly less-reliant on team performance than an MVP award, but you generally don’t see players win this coming from lousy teams. First off, really bad teams seldom have an offensive weapon that can put together the kind of numbers that warrant consideration. But even if a player did, he’d likely lose to a similarly-productive player who was just on a team where his performance actually helped the team’s bottom line. Let’s take a look at our favorite choices. (All Odds by Bovada)
Best Picks to Win the 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
Ja’Marr Chase (+1200): He eclipsed 1000 yards last year for the second time in his two NFL seasons. But after doing it last season when still missing five games shows what kind of numbers the Cincinnati wide receiver can deliver if he plays a whole season. The Bengals are now high-profile after making two straight conference title games, giving Chase some exposure. If the Bengals stay on-point this season and Chase is up there with well over 1500 yards receiving and a slew of big plays over the course of the season, he will be hard to ignore. With this being his third season and Burrow’s fourth, there seems to be a realistic chance that they hit another gear in 2023.
Tyreek Hill (+1800): The second-year Miami Dolphin looks to have a chance to improve on what was a very successful maiden season with the ‘Fins, putting up over 1700 yards receiving. The speedster is still in his prime and generally stays pretty healthy, only playing less than 15 games in his career one time. Having a player tied too much to injury-prone Tua Tagovailoa could be problematic. Miami acquiring Mike White, however, gives them at least a slightly better option than last season in the event that Tagovailoa misses time. If the Dolphins continue their upward trajectory and you look back and Hill is the clear star of the group, he’d be a serious contender at a nice +1800 return.
Justin Fields (+2200): Yes, he’s a quarterback and one that might not put up the requisite aerial numbers you expect from an award-winning quarterback. But considering that he is the Bears’ entire offense, he will have at least the opportunity for a giant season. One certainly notices some damning items connected to the prospects of winning this award—a bad team, some anemic passing performances, and a lack of really big stuff around him to work with to help him get over the hump. But some more low-key acquisitions have in fact brought their offense up a notch. Those 5-6 times last season where we saw Fields with the numbers of a great running back, along with throwing a couple TDs were promising. And if he can expound on that and find a way to take advantage of an NFC North division that is at its weakest in years, he could emerge as a nice little longshot pick for this award.
Cooper Kupp (+2200): A few things set up well for the 2021 winner Kupp. The Rams being maligned heading into 2023 actually helps his case, as a big-time receiver merely having another big season for a top team wouldn’t stand out. But if you combine the low expectations for the Rams and how Kupp missed the last half of the 2022 season, a big individual year for Kupp and the Rams playing a little better than anticipated could set up well for the standout WR. One thing he may really have going for him is that unlike others on this list, the gap between Kupp and the rest of his offense is so vast that he almost can’t help but to put up giant numbers this season with Stafford looking to go his way an awful lot in 2023.
Josh Allen (+2800): Picking a quarterback can be tricky, but out of the whole lot, it may be Allen who sets up the best. Between his personal trajectory and struggling a bit to get his Bills team into the upper-echelon of AFC elite teams, a really big season could result in Allen seriously standing out in this context. With 29 picks in the last two years, a season where Allen cleans things up a bit and helps Buffalo really get into that KC/Cincy upper-conference classification could have him looking good. Players like this who have been a little quiet after a big splash and then do something for you to reconsider their excellence have an appealing trajectory that strikes more toward the sentimentality of these types of accolades.
Favorite Offensive Player of the Year Longshot
Breece Hall (+4000): Coming off a season-ending knee injury doesn’t set things up ideally for the second-year Jets running back. But just about everything else does. Aaron Rodgers is coming into town, which upgrades this offense significantly and therefore the Jets, who look to improve in a big way in 2023. If that comes to pass and Hall stays healthy and continues what we saw last season with the boost from Rodgers, he could be a big part of this team’s success and therefore, a nice candidate to have in your futures profile heading into the NFL season.
