NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Pick

by | Nov 30, 2018 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS)
When: December 02, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
BY: Rick Wise

Point Spread: BUF +6/MIA -6
Over/Under: 40.5

Takeaways From Week 12

The Bills put together their first two wins of the season with a convincing 24-21 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in a battle of 3-7 teams.

He’s still got a ways to go, but rookie quarterback Josh Allen continues to prove that he can lead this team. He connected on just 8-of-19 passing attempts for 16 yards and 1 touchdown but he hit on some big throws, the biggest being a 75-yard toss to Robert Foster. Allen also scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 14-yard scramble in the fourth quarter.

The Bills’ pass defense was in large part responsible for the win. The unit held Blake Bortles to 127 yards passing and intercepted him twice, thankfully, because they had no answer for the run and allowed the Jags to pile up 226 yards on the ground, including 95 yards and 2 touchdowns from Leonard Fournette.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins lost their second straight after a 27-24 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in which they blew a 10-point second half lead.

Cornerback Xavier Howard pretty much singlehandedly kept the Dolphins in the game with his two first half interceptions of Andrew Luck The Dolphins were unable to convert the turnovers into points but they kept the game deadlocked at 14 heading into the half.

The Miami ground game was solid. Running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake combined for 99 yard and one touchdown on 22 carries for a 4.5 yards per carry average. Drake also added 64 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions for a total of 96 yards from scrimmage.

The Historicals

These two have a long history against each other. They’ve met a total of 108 times dating all the way back to 1966 and the Dolphins lead the series 60-47-1. However the Bills have had the upper hand as of late, winning 7 of the last 10 going back to 2013.

Injury Concerns

  • For Buffalo, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are TE Charles Clay (hamstring) and QB Derek Anderson (concussion).
  • For Miami, listed as questionable for Sunday are WR Danny Amendola (knee) and TE A.J. Derby (foot).

When the Bills Have the Ball

The Buffalo offense isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Their passing game ranks 30th in the NFL and their running game ranks 17th but they’ve been doing enough lately to win back to back games. And against Miami’s 21st-ranked pass defense and 29th-ranked run defense they might just be able to extend that winning streak.

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When the Dolphins Have the Ball

Miami’s offense is also near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories, with its 27th-ranked passing game, 20th-ranked ground game and 25th-ranked scoring offense. And considering the Bills are pretty stout on defense, ranking first against the pass and 16th against the run, Dolphins offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen will need to draw up something special to score enough points to win this one.


Betting Trends

  • Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 9 games
  • Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami
  • Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games when playing Miami
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 12 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games at home
  • Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
  • Miami is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Buffalo
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami’s last 12 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    Weather Report

    Warm South Florida weather is expected for this one, with 85 degree temperatures underneath partly cloudy skies with 64% humidity and 9 mph SSW winds.

    Rick Wise’s Pick: Buffalo +6