Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Monday, November 2, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Lumen Field (ESPN/ABC)
The Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5, and my play on the props board is Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 99.5 receiving yards, backed by Caleb Williams Over 235.5 passing yards and Kalif Raymond Over 2.5 receptions.
Ben Johnson’s offense against Mike Macdonald’s defense is the heavyweight bout everybody wants to watch. The prop market has a quieter question: which passing game gets out of the way of the other team’s best unit? I think both do, and I’m betting on the receivers.
JSN is the one thing Seattle never runs out of
Smith-Njigba already has 867 receiving yards through seven games. That’s about 124 a week, so a 99.5 line asks him to have an ordinary night for him. Sam Darnold has been shaky, ranking 23rd in QBR entering the week and posting the league’s worst EPA per dropback when pressured. When a quarterback gets nervous, he looks for the guy he trusts most, and in Seattle that’s JSN every time.
The protection makes that even more likely. Left tackle Charles Cross is out with an ankle injury, and Rashid Shaheed (knee) is out too, which removes Seattle’s other downfield threat. Darnold has to get the ball out quickly, and one target soaks up those quick throws. Quenton Nelson’s debut at guard helps, but it doesn’t fix the blind side.
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Seattle can stuff the run, so Williams has to throw
Seattle’s defense ranks third in EPA per play and is top three against both the run and the pass, so nothing about this is easy for Chicago. Even so, the Bears have put up 0.14 EPA per play with Williams on the field, which puts them among the five most efficient offenses in football. He has 1,020 passing yards in four starts, a little over 250 a game, and the 235.5 line sits below that pace. Chicago will also be without its second-leading rusher, Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe), and D’Andre Swift faces a front built to stop the run. If the Bears are down three or more in the fourth quarter, Williams keeps throwing.
Raymond is the bargain on this card. He didn’t catch a pass last week, which is exactly why the 2.5-reception line pays plus money (about +136 to +140 at most books). Seattle’s coverage makes defenders pick their spots, and the short, quick-game routes Raymond runs are the ones a pressured Williams can hit before the rush gets home.
The case against me
Seattle’s defense might simply win. Macdonald’s group ranks second in pass rush win rate and second in takeaways, and Williams likes to hold the ball. A few sacks and an early interception would shrink Chicago’s passing volume quickly. On the other side, the Seahawks finally have Zach Charbonnet back from his torn ACL, rookie Jadarian Price activated, and Emanuel Wilson (403 rushing yards) all healthy. If Seattle runs it 35 times and drains the clock, JSN’s targets dry up, and a close game with fewer snaps hurts every Over on this card. Colston Loveland’s neck injury could also shuffle where Chicago’s targets go.
Projected stat lines
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 8 catches, 112 yards, 1 TD
- Caleb Williams: 24 of 37, 248 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kalif Raymond: 4 catches, 38 yards
- Sam Darnold: 21 of 32, 231 yards, 1 TD
- Projected score: Seahawks 24, Bears 23
The Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 99.5 Receiving Yards, Caleb Williams Over 235.5 Passing Yards, Kalif Raymond Over 2.5 Receptions
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