Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 1, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium
The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites and the total is 39.5. My play is the Steelers -3.5 (-108).
Four weeks ago, Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 27-24 and grabbed the tiebreaker. Both teams are 5-2 now, and the winner Sunday sits alone in first place in the AFC North. Pittsburgh has been waiting for this one since October 1, and Mike McCarthy as good as admitted it when he explained why his team flew to Paris late. He had Cleveland on his mind.
The Browns Have Been Living on the Edge
Give Cleveland credit. It’s 5-2 without Myles Garrett, who was traded to the Rams in June, and the defense is still legit, ranking fifth in pass success rate allowed. Deshaun Watson just had his first 300-yard game as a Brown, and Andre Szmyt won it at the gun with a 32-yard field goal in Tennessee.
But all five of those wins came by four points or fewer, including a 13-10 grinder and two 27-24 finishes. TeamRankings ranks the Browns second in its luck rating, and their offense is 26th in EPA (expected points added, a measure of how much each play moves a team toward points). They convert just 32.6% of their third downs, and Watson has been sacked 25 times. You can win close games with that profile. Covering on the road against a good team is harder.
Pittsburgh Can Lean on the Ground Game
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been sharp. Pittsburgh’s passing game ranks 26th in EPA. The run game is a different story. The Steelers are fourth in rushing EPA, and in the first meeting Jaylen Warren ran for 93 yards on 17 carries. Expect a lot more of that, especially with Pittsburgh holding opponents to a 35.9% third-down rate. Win the possession battle and the Browns have to get creative with an offense that hasn’t shown much of that.
Rodgers also threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns in the loss in Cleveland. Two interceptions and a pile of missed tackles flipped it. Clean those up and the result likely goes the other way.
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Home Cooking
Pittsburgh is 3-0 straight up and against the spread at Acrisure Stadium this season. TeamRankings rates the Steelers seventh in home performance and the Browns 29th on the road. The defense has also tightened up since that first meeting, allowing 17 points per game over the three games since, and it now ranks fifth in fewest points allowed per game, per Steelers Now.
On the injury front, Cleveland just put defensive tackle Kalia Davis on IR, and Mike Hall Jr. (ankle), tackle Tytus Howard (head) and corner Myles Harden (hamstring) are all questionable. Pittsburgh’s main worries are at receiver and corner, with Ben Skowronek and Brandin Echols questionable.
Why I Could Be Wrong
That flight home from France is real. McCarthy called this the oldest team he has ever coached, Rodgers is 42, and the Steelers have a bye next week, which brings its own risk of a look-ahead. And in a game totaled at 39.5, the hook on 3.5 matters. One late Szmyt field goal and we’re looking at a push or worse.
Final Score Projection
Steelers 23, Browns 16. Pittsburgh runs the ball, wins the turnover battle this time and takes over first place.
The Pick: Steelers -3.5 (-108)
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