New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 1, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium (CBS)
The New England Patriots are 7-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins, with the total at 44. My play is Patriots -7.
Miami just won its first game of the season, and the reward is Drake Maye on 10 days of rest. Good luck with that.
Maye is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in football. Over his last four games, Maye has averaged 0.44 EPA per dropback, which is an absurd number. EPA is a measure of how much each play adds to a team’s expected points, and anything above 0.2 is excellent. He’s completing passes at a rate well above what the throws should allow, and on the season he has 1,784 yards and 13 touchdowns. Even in the 30-24 Thursday night loss in Chicago, he went 24 of 31 for 321 yards with two touchdown passes and another on the ground. The loss came down to one end-zone interception and some ugly tackling, not the quarterback.
Miami’s pass defense is the worst in football, and it isn’t close. The Dolphins rank dead last in EPA allowed, success rate allowed and EPA allowed per pass. Opponents are completing 76.6% of their throws. Miami has six sacks all season, also last in the league, and lets opponents convert 52.1% of their third downs. Give a hot quarterback a clean pocket and endless second chances, and you get exactly what you’d expect.
Give the Dolphins credit, but don’t overrate one win. Malik Willis was terrific in the 28-25 win over the Jets, throwing for 208 yards and two touchdowns, running for another score and sealing it on fourth down with his legs. It was Jeff Hafley’s first win as head coach, and it was a feel-good moment. The bigger sample is less kind. Miami ranks 24th in offensive EPA and 28th passing, it’s 0-2 at home, and it’s playing without De’Von Achane, who’s on IR with a torn ACL. Willis has four touchdowns and four interceptions on the season, and his completion rate trails what his throws should produce by nearly seven points.
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The ratings say this line is short. TeamRankings has New England eighth in its power ratings and Miami 32nd, a gap of nearly 12 points before home field. The game opened at Patriots -7 and has stayed there, with three of every four tickets on New England. Normally I’d be wary of following the crowd, but this is a case where the crowd is right. The Patriots’ offense ranks eighth passing by EPA, and Miami hasn’t shown it can stop anyone through the air.
Where this goes sideways. New England is just 1-3 on the road, and Miami has been a thorn in its side, going 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings. The Dolphins have also covered three straight. The Patriots have turned it over 14 times (eight interceptions, six lost fumbles), and gifts like that are how a 7-point dog sneaks in through the back door. New England’s secondary is banged up too, with Carlton Davis and others on the injury report, and center Ben Brown is dealing with a knee issue. Add low-80s heat and a chance of rain, and this won’t be a clean afternoon.
Final score projection. Maye finds open receivers all afternoon, Miami hangs around for a half on Willis’ legs, and New England pulls away in the fourth quarter. Patriots 30, Dolphins 17.
The Pick: Patriots -7 (-110)
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