Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
Sunday, November 1, 2026
1:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium
The Jets are 1.5-point favorites and the total is 45.5. My play is Over 45.5 (-108).
Picking a side here is like picking which leaky boat to sail. The Raiders have lost four straight and the Jets just lost at home to a Miami team that hadn’t won a game. So I’m not picking a boat. I’m betting on the water coming in.
Vegas can’t stop anybody right now. The Raiders started 3-0 and have since given up 30, 45, 33 and 35 points. Over the last three weeks their defense has allowed +0.256 EPA per play, which is the kind of number you usually see from a bad offense, not a defense. When opponents reach the red zone, Las Vegas has allowed a touchdown 78.6% of the time. That’s not bending. That’s breaking.
Kirk Cousins keeps throwing touchdowns. The 38-year-old leads the NFL with 16 touchdown passes, and Klint Kubiak shut down any quarterback talk this week: “There is no controversy there.” Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, will wait. Cousins and the passing game rank ninth in EPA per dropback, and they face a Jets defense with one interception all season. That’s dead last in the league.
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Geno Smith has a little extra motivation. Smith played for the Raiders last season, and that ended about as warmly as you’d expect. Kirk Morrison put it simply: “Geno got some bad intentions. I know he do.” He has the form to back it up: a 105.2 passer rating with 10 touchdowns and two picks. Against Miami, the Jets had their best offensive day of the season by EPA, and now they get a Vegas pass defense that ranks 25th.
The heat is on in New York. Aaron Glenn is 5-19 as Jets head coach, he calls the defense, and that defense let Miami put together touchdown drives of 14 and 15 plays. “Disappointed in myself, first and foremost,” Glenn said. Then there’s Garrett Wilson, who had two catches and got caught in a heated sideline exchange that he later called “collaborating.” A desperate staff is going to force the ball to its best receiver, and that tends to make for points, not punts.
The weather is fine. Mid-60s and dry at MetLife, so there’s nothing to slow down two veteran quarterbacks who are throwing well.
Where this can go sideways. Neither team can run it. Ashton Jeanty is averaging 3.1 yards a carry and the Jets rank 27th in rushing EPA, so a few stalled drives could leave us sweating. The Jets have also settled for field goals too often, scoring touchdowns on just 44.4% of red-zone trips. If Breece Hall returns from his quad injury and New York grinds the clock, 45.5 gets tougher.
Projected score: Jets 27, Raiders 24. Smith gets his revenge, Cousins adds a couple more touchdown passes to his league lead, and we clear the number with room to spare.
The Pick: Over 45.5 (-108)
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