Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 1, 2026
1:00 PM ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Dallas is laying 6.5 points at home against Arizona, with a total of 54.5. My play is Cowboys -6.5 (-115).
Brian Schottenheimer got a little loud after Monday night. His Cowboys walked into Philadelphia and won 38-21, and the coach who’d been hearing about his job security told reporters, “I know how great of a coach I am.” Dak Prescott said he saw a “hungry, pissed-off version of Schotty.” Fine. Now the Cowboys have to do something they haven’t done since Weeks 11 through 13 of last season: win two games in a row.
Arizona’s recent history in this building is real. The Cardinals have won the last four meetings with Dallas, including a 27-17 win at AT&T Stadium last November as a 3.5-point underdog. They’ve also been a much better road team than home team this year, covering three of four away from Glendale with outright wins at the Chargers and Rams as big dogs. I respect it. I just don’t think it beats the matchup.
This Cardinals offense is running low on bullets. Arizona traded Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston earlier this month and then lost Jalen Brooks for the season with a wrist injury. Jacoby Brissett has 1,600 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his per-play efficiency is basically break-even, and the offense ranks 19th by expected points added per play, the stat that measures how much each snap moves a team toward points. The red zone has been an ongoing headache, and the Cardinals convert just 38% of their third downs. Trey McBride (10 catches, 111 yards against Denver) is a great weapon, but one tight end can’t carry a passing game for 60 minutes.
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Dallas can score on anybody, and Arizona can’t stop the pass. The Cowboys rank sixth in offensive EPA per play and convert better than half their third downs. Prescott has been sacked just seven times all year. And the run game finally showed up Monday: Javonte Williams went for a career-high 155 yards, Dallas piled up 204 on the ground, and Williams now leads the league with eight rushing touchdowns. Arizona’s defense ranks 27th in EPA allowed per play and 30th against the pass. That’s a lot of open grass for CeeDee Lamb, who already has 651 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
Yes, the Dallas defense is a mess. It’s dead last in EPA allowed per play and has given up a touchdown on the opponent’s opening drive four straight weeks. Expect Arizona to land an early punch. The difference is that the Cowboys’ offense can answer every time, and Arizona’s usually can’t. TeamRankings’ predictive ratings have these teams nearly nine points apart before you even give Dallas home field, and that’s how I get to a number above a touchdown.
What could flip it. Dallas is on a short week after a physical, emotional Monday night, and this team hasn’t stacked two wins together in nearly a year. Running back Jeremiyah Love is expected back at practice for Arizona, which would give Brissett a real second option behind McBride. The Cowboys also list linebacker Dee Winters, tackle Drew Shelton and returner KaVontae Turpin as questionable. And with the worst defense in the league, Dallas is always one or two stops away from a backdoor cover. If you can only find -7, I’m still in. At -7.5, I’d pass.
Bottom line. I’ll bet on the better offense against the worse pass defense. Arizona will hang around early, but Prescott and Williams should be able to pull away in the second half.
Final score prediction: Cowboys 31, Cardinals 21
The Pick: Cowboys -6.5 (-115)
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