Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 1, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo is a 3-point favorite over Baltimore with a total of 54.5. My play is Bills -3 (-120).
Here’s a stat that should scare every Ravens fan: Baltimore has outscored opponents by 65 points in first halves this season and been outscored by 70 after halftime. ESPN Research says that 135-point swing is the second-worst through seven games in NFL history, behind only the 1980 Rams. Now that team heads to Orchard Park to face the club that has scored more second-half points than anyone in the league since 2019. You can see where this is going.
The Lamar question doesn’t have a clean answer
Lamar Jackson has missed three straight games with a high ankle sprain, and the Ravens are 1-2 without him. Jesse Minter sounded hopeful Monday, but he also said “we’ll know a lot more on Wednesday,” which is coach-speak for “don’t ask me yet.” Remember, Jackson was limited all last week, carried a questionable tag, and still got scratched before the Bengals game.
When he’s right, he’s a cheat code. Jackson has been one of the most efficient passers in football on a per-dropback basis this year, while Tyler Huntley’s numbers sit closer to average. But a quarterback coming off a high ankle sprain isn’t the guy who turns a broken play into a 40-yard run. And he’d be working behind a line that’s falling apart. Rookie guard Olaivavega Ioane is doubtful with an MCL sprain, the top three centers are already on injured reserve, and Baltimore is looking at its sixth different starting line of the season.
The Ravens’ run game has gone quiet at the worst time
Baltimore was a top-three rushing attack through six weeks. Then it managed 83 yards against Cincinnati, its second straight game under 100. Derrick Henry is averaging 3.9 yards a carry and didn’t mince words. “I [have] got to be better,” he said. “It’s not good enough.” Over the last two weeks, the Ravens’ offense has lost ground on an average snap. That’s a long way from the team that started the year.
Buffalo is the opposite. The Bills have the No. 1 offense in the league by expected points added per play, the stat that measures how much each snap helps your chances to score. They’re also No. 1 running the ball by the same measure, with James Cook at 627 yards and six touchdowns. Josh Allen has 1,504 passing yards, nine scores, and a defense across from him that ranks 23rd at stopping the pass.
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Rest versus wreckage
Buffalo last played October 18 and comes in off a bye. Baltimore comes in off a 35-13 loss in which it led 13-0 at halftime and gave up touchdowns on Cincinnati’s first five possessions of the second half. Minter said it plainly afterward: “Right now, we’re too much of a momentum team.” Baltimore has blown a double-digit second-half lead in back-to-back weeks. Its defense has given up 114 points after halftime, the most in the league, and Marlon Humphrey has allowed an NFL-worst 176 yards in fourth quarters, per Next Gen Stats.
The betting market has noticed. This opened Bills -2.5 and has pushed to a field goal, with several spots now hanging -3.5 at close to even money. Baltimore is 1-4 against the spread over its last five, and TeamRankings’ predictive ratings put Buffalo third in the league and the Ravens 16th.
The case against me
If Jackson is fully healthy, this gets a lot harder. Buffalo’s defense is a weak spot, 29th in EPA allowed per play and near the bottom against the pass, and a sharp Lamar can carve that up. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is serving a one-game suspension, and DJ Moore (shoulder) and Ed Oliver (knee) are both questionable. The Bills have also been loose with the ball, nine giveaways in six games, and they’ve played plenty of close ones. Each of their last three games was decided by exactly three points. A hook at 3 matters, which is why I’d take -3 at a higher price over -3.5.
The verdict
Buffalo is rested, healthier where it counts, and built to do its best work exactly when Baltimore falls apart. Even a Lamar return comes with a bad ankle and a patchwork line. I’ll lay the field goal and trust the fourth quarter to sort it out.
Projected score: Bills 30, Ravens 23
The Pick: Bills -3 (-120)
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