Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 1, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
The Bengals are laying 10.5 points to the Titans, and the total sits at 46.5. My play is Titans +10.5 (-105).
One half of football moved this line four points. This game opened Bengals -6.5, and then Cincinnati went to Baltimore, got outgained 258 yards to 59 before halftime, and came out of the locker room after a Ja’Marr Chase tirade to score touchdowns on its first five possessions of the second half. “Somebody’s got to make a play for us, somebody got to make a play,” Chase said he screamed. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns. A 35-13 final made it look easy.
It was a great half. I’m just not paying 10.5 points for it against a team that rarely gets blown out.
The Titans are bad, but they’re bad in a close way
Tennessee is 1-6, and I’m not going to pretend this offense is good. It ranks 31st in expected points added per play, which is a fancy way of saying the average Titans snap makes things worse. Cam Ward has turned the ball over too much, and the passing game has almost no big plays, with just 10 completions of 20-plus yards through six games.
Look at the margins, though. The Titans lost by 4 to Philadelphia, by 5 to the Giants, by 6 in Baltimore as an 11.5-point dog, and by 3 to Cleveland. They won by 6 in Indianapolis. Five of their seven games were decided by six points or less. Only the Jets and Houston beat them by more than a touchdown.
Last week was the blueprint. Tony Pollard ran 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns, and the Titans jumped out 14-0 on the Browns. They came up an inch short on a fourth-and-goal, then lost on a field goal as time expired at the end of a Cleveland drive that included what looked like a missed false start. “We’ve got to be able to push it in from the inch-yard line,” Robert Saleh said. That’s a team playing hard, not one waving the white flag.
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Cincinnati’s offense is built to throw, and it throws well. Burrow is completing passes well above expectation, and the Bengals rank fifth in passing efficiency. But they’re 18th running the ball, and Chase Brown is averaging just 3.5 yards a carry. Teams that can’t run don’t milk clocks with three-score leads. They also just lost tight end Erick All Jr. to injured reserve with what’s believed to be a torn ACL, joining Tanner Hudson on IR, and safety Kyle Dugger is out.
The Bengals haven’t been a home juggernaut either. They’re 1-1 at Paycor, with a loss to Jacksonville, and TeamRankings rates them 13th at home compared to fourth on the road. Coming off a rivalry comeback that Zac Taylor said “reaffirms we can be as good as we want to be,” this sets up as the classic flat spot against a 1-6 team.
Where this goes wrong
The Titans are the worst first-half team in the league by TeamRankings’ ratings, and an early 14-0 hole against Burrow is the nightmare. Cincinnati’s defense is legit, 10th in EPA allowed per play with 21 sacks and 10 takeaways, and Ward has been sloppy with the ball. Calvin Ridley (hip) and Tyjae Spears (knee) are questionable, so Tennessee could be thin at the skill spots. If the Bengals’ second half from Baltimore becomes their full-game identity, this number won’t matter.
Still, double digits is a lot to lay with a team that can’t run the ball against an opponent that keeps finding ways to hang around. Take the points, and grab +10.5 while it’s out there.
My projection: Bengals 26, Titans 17
The Pick: Titans +10.5 (-105)
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