Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 1, 2026
4:05 PM ET, SoFi Stadium
The Rams are 6.5-point favorites with a total of 45. My play is Under 45 (-110).
“0-6 does not give the privilege to rule out anything at this point.” That was Jim Harbaugh during the Chargers’ bye week, and it’s about as honest a scouting report as you’ll get on his offense.
The Chargers are the only winless team in the NFL, and they’re the road team in their own building this week. The problem isn’t the defense. It’s an offense that ranks dead last in EPA per play, last in success rate and last in passing efficiency. In plain English, the Chargers lose the down-to-down battle more than anyone in football. They’re scoring 15.0 points per game, also last, and haven’t topped 23 in any game. Justin Herbert has five touchdown passes, eight interceptions and has been sacked 21 times. Add seven lost fumbles and you have an offense that kills its own drives before the opponent has to.
Two weeks off can’t rebuild this offense
Harbaugh spent the bye talking about simplifying the playbook in Mike McDaniel’s first year as coordinator. Simpler usually means slower and safer: more runs, more short throws, fewer shots. That’s great news for an Under, because this team was already slow. The Under is 5-1 in Chargers games this season.
The matchup doesn’t get easier. The Rams rank fifth in the league in EPA allowed per play and fifth against the pass, and they allow 22.7 points per game. The Chargers’ defense, for its part, is a legit unit, ranking 12th in EPA allowed per play, and it should keep the Rams from running away with this.
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The Rams’ offense is good, not great, without Davante Adams. Matthew Stafford has 14 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, and Puka Nacua has 45 catches for 485 yards in five games. Sean McVay’s group ranks 10th in EPA per play and averages 24.3 points per game. Put that against a solid defense and you get a Rams team that scores in the low-to-mid 20s, not one that drops 35.
Where this goes sideways
The Rams’ pass rush is short-handed, with Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford all on IR, and they rank 27th in sack rate. If Herbert gets clean pockets, he still has the arm to hit a couple of big plays. The Rams also convert 48.2% of their third downs and score touchdowns on 69% of their red-zone trips, and the Chargers’ defense has allowed 25.2 points a game. A Chargers turnover that hands the Rams a short field, or a defensive score, can blow up a total like this in a hurry. Getting Joe Alt or Derwin James Jr. back from injury would help the Chargers too.
Projected score: Rams 24, Chargers 16. I’d play the Under down to 44. At 43.5, I’d pass.
The Pick: Under 45
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