NFL Wild-Card Prop Bets: Steelers at Chiefs

by | Last updated Jan 15, 2022 | nfl

The NFL wild-card weekend is almost upon us, and to make our betting pleasures even better, the prop bets are out for the six wild-card games. Here’s what caught our attention while surfing ‘ prop offerings for Sunday night’s Chiefs-Steelers wild-card game.

Chasing Bigger Payouts

First of all, we don’t really care for most football prop bets, typically Over/Unders on whatever stats the books feel like posting with basically 50/50 chances of hitting. To us, prop bets are about chasing bigger game, like prices of 10/1 and up. So we gravitate toward the touchdown boards, with multiple longer shots to choose from and other such wagering opportunities.

Second, a note on safeties; there were eight safeties recorded in the NFL this season. In 272 games. That’s one every 34 games. So the odds on a safety for Sunday night’s game should probably be a lot higher than the +1000 Bovada is offering.

Just in case, now that we’ve opened our big mouth, we should probably throw a sawbuck on it.

Also, a note on overtime; 21 games went to overtime this NFL season. That comes to one out of every 13 games. Bovada is offering +1200 on overtime Sunday night, but we just don’t see that happening. We’ve already played Kansas City at -12.5, so there better not be overtime.


From there, a couple of Steelers-Chiefs player touchdown props interest us.

Kansas City scored 37 touchdowns through the air this season, 16 on the ground. WR Hill and TE Kelce combined to catch 203 balls with 18 touchdown receptions. So those two guys are gonna get most of the attention both on the field and on the prop bet odds.

Then we’ve got mercurial Mecole Hardman, who showed third on the Chiefs this season in both catches (59) and yardage 693) but only scored two touchdowns. Last week at Denver, he caught eight balls – most on those wide-receiver screens – for 103 yards, busted one for big yardage, and nearly a couple others but did not score. And over his last five games, he’s recorded receptions for 44, 53, and 44 yards, none of which went for scores.

In hoping he busts one early Sunday night, we like the +2100 Bovada is offering on Hardman on its “first touchdown” board.

Now, just in case Pittsburgh decides to put up some points Sunday night, we go looking for a Steelers touchdown prop. Pittsburgh scored 23 touchdowns through the air this season, only ten on the ground. WR Diontae Johnson led the Steelers with 107 catches this season and eight touchdowns, while TE Pat Freiermuth caught 60 balls with seven touchdowns.

Meanwhile, WR Chase Claypool caught 59 balls but with only two touchdowns after scoring nine touchdowns on 62 catches as a rookie last season. But he caught five balls and scored Pittsburgh’s only touchdown last week at Baltimore, and we’re thinking he might be due for a two-score day.

Bovada’s offering is +2400 on Claypool, scoring at least two touchdowns Sunday night and +10000 on three or more. We’re betting that +2400. Another great sportsbook offering a bunch of Wildcard Weekend bets is MyBookie Sportsbook. They’ll give you a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 if you use bonus code PREDICT100 when you register!