Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 4, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium
Green Bay is a 3.5-point road favorite over Tampa Bay with a total of 39.5. My play is the Under.
The quarterback change in Tampa is the entry point here. Baker Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand in the final moments of last week’s 23-16 loss to Minnesota, and Ian Rapoport reports he’ll miss two to four weeks in the best-case scenario. That puts undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels in line for his first NFL start. Daniels’ only regular-season snaps came on the final drive against the Vikings. The market moved fast: Green Bay went from a 1.5-point lookahead favorite to -3.5, and the total sits at 39.5, one of the lowest numbers on the Week 4 board.
Tampa Bay’s offense was already struggling with Mayfield. The Buccaneers are 0-3, averaging 20.7 points per game, and have converted just 3 of 10 red-zone trips into touchdowns (30%). The offensive line has allowed 13 sacks in three games, including six against Minnesota, when Mayfield was also hit 12 times. A rookie making his first start behind that line, without a week of first-team reps, is a recipe for punts and field goals. Realistic Buccaneers output: 10-14 points.
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Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been much better. The Packers are averaging 18.7 points per game and own the league’s worst third-down conversion rate at 27.8% (10-for-36). They scored just 14 points in a 35-14 home loss to Atlanta on Thursday Night Football last week. Jordan Love and this offense have had trouble sustaining drives, and Tampa Bay’s defense has held opponents to a 37.5% touchdown rate in the red zone. Realistic Packers output: 20-24 points.
That gives us a combined range of 30-38 points. That’s under 39.5.
The honest risk here is Green Bay’s defense. The Packers are allowing 30.3 points per game after giving up 39 to Minnesota and 35 to Atlanta, and both teams have gone over the total in two of their three games. But those overs came with established quarterbacks on both sides. Tampa Bay was averaging more than 20 points with Mayfield; with a rookie making his debut, the Bucs lose the ability to exploit a leaky defense.
The models land in the same spot. Dimers projects Packers 21, Buccaneers 17, a 38-point total. Sportsbettingdime also backs the Under 39.5, pointing to both teams’ third-down and red-zone problems.
Neither offense is built for big plays right now. One has the worst third-down offense in the league, and the other is starting an undrafted rookie behind a line that has allowed 13 sacks. That means fewer sustained drives, more field goals than touchdowns, and a low final total.
Realistic outcomes: Packers 21, Buccaneers 17 (38 total); Packers 24, Buccaneers 14 (38 total); Packers 20, Buccaneers 13 (33 total); or Packers 24, Buccaneers 20 (44 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 39.5. The Over needs Daniels to have a strong debut, and that’s a lot to expect from an undrafted rookie in his first start.
The Pick: Packers/Buccaneers Under 39.5
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