New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 4, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Highmark Stadium
Buffalo is a 6.5-point home favorite over New England with a total of 48.5. My play is the Under.
The Patriots’ offensive collapse is the entry point here. New England has scored a league-worst 12 points per game through three games. That’s the offensive ceiling of a team whose quarterback (Drake Maye) hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 1 and already has six interceptions on the season. Their 35-6 Week 3 loss to Jacksonville was the most recent embarrassment — an offense unable to sustain drives, create explosive plays, or convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns.
Realistically, the Patriots will score 10-14 points in this game. That’s the hard ceiling of a Drake Maye-led offense against the Bills’ defense — even a Buffalo defense that has been solid but not dominant. Ten to fourteen points is not a random number — that’s the actual average of what New England has done against three different defensive schemes through Weeks 1-3.
The Patriots’ Under trend supports this. Every single Patriots game this season has hit the Under. Three of three. That’s a specific pattern of an offense that consistently underperforms market expectations. When an offense is that limited, the resulting games produce lower totals than the sportsbook lines suggest.
Buffalo’s offense is dangerous, but even they won’t run up 40+ points. Josh Allen has been playing like the NFL MVP, but Sean McDermott’s coaching style in blowouts is measured. Once the Bills build a 24-3 or 27-3 lead by halftime, they’ll shift to clock control and preservation football. Backup running backs get carries, Allen sits down for a series or two, and the resulting margin caps at 20-24 points. Realistic Buffalo output: 27-31 points.
That gives us a total range of 37-45 points. Well under 48.5.
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The Bills coming off their best defensive performance of the season vs the Chargers reinforces the play. They just held Los Angeles to 14 points and generated pressure and turnovers. Against Drake Maye — who has been turnover-prone all season — expect that defensive intensity to continue. Sacks, interceptions, and stalled Patriots drives all suppress total scoring.
Even the specific game script scenarios support this. If Buffalo hits 27 and New England hits 17, total is 44 — under. If Buffalo hits 28 and New England hits 14, total is 42 — under. If Buffalo hits 34 and New England hits 17, total is 51 — over by 2.5. Only if Buffalo decides to run up the score AND the Patriots suddenly find offensive rhythm does the total push over.
Multiple prediction models also point to under. picksandparlays projects Bills 27-17 or 28-16 (both totals of 44). Dimers has the Bills at 71.9% win probability, which typically translates to a comfortable win rather than a shootout. The market’s 48.5 total is above what these models suggest.
Realistic outcomes: Bills 27, Patriots 14 (41 total); Bills 28, Patriots 14 (42 total); Bills 31, Patriots 17 (48 total, under by 0.5); or Bills 35, Patriots 21 (56 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 48.5.
The Pick: Patriots/Bills Under 48.5
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