New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 27, 2026
1:00 PM ET, EverBank Stadium
Jacksonville is a 2.5-point home favorite over New England with a total of 45.5. My play is the Patriots getting the points.
The Patriots defense is the entry point here. New England ranks No. 2 in the entire NFL in EPA/Play and No. 4 in yards per play allowed. Across two games, they’ve given up just 16 total points. In Week 2, they held the Pittsburgh Steelers to just three points at Gillette Stadium. That’s an elite defensive unit playing at a championship level, and it’s the specific reason to lay points against them isn’t going to be a comfortable spot.
Now consider what the Jaguars offense has been able to do. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars produced 34 points against Cleveland in Week 1, but they were limited to just 13 points in a 20-13 loss to Denver in Week 2. Denver’s defense is legitimate, but it’s not on the same level as New England’s. Against the Patriots’ current defensive scheme, the Jaguars should struggle to score more than 17-20 points. That’s not a good ceiling when the market is asking them to win by three or more.
Drake Maye has bounced back from a rough Week 1 performance. His three interceptions against Seattle raised concerns, but his response was to lead the Patriots to a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh in Week 2. That’s a quarterback showing resilience and adjusting to game plans. Against a Jaguars defense that isn’t at Pittsburgh’s level, Maye should be able to hit 17-20 points himself.
The market has already been signaling this game as close. The line opened with the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs and hasn’t moved substantially. That’s the market recognizing that this is essentially a pick-em with the home team getting the slight edge. When you can get more than a field goal for a team playing at this defensive level, the value is on the underdog side.
The Under trends also support the play. Patriots games have gone under in both of their contests this season (a 13-10 loss and a 20-3 win). Both teams have played disciplined, defensive-oriented football, and the resulting total for this game should stay low. Even if the Jaguars win, they likely do it 20-17 or 23-20 — margins that either push the +2.5 or comfortably cover.
Realistic outcomes: Jaguars 20, Patriots 17 (3-point margin, Patriots push +2.5); Patriots 20, Jaguars 17 (Patriots win outright); Jaguars 23, Patriots 20 (3-point margin, push); or Jaguars 27, Patriots 17 (10-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover or push for the Patriots, and given the elite defensive matchup and Maye’s Week 2 form, that’s the more likely outcome distribution.
Liam Coen’s Jaguars are also 2-2 against the spread after a loss since he took over in 2025. That’s below-average bounce-back covering rate, which further supports the fade on Jacksonville laying points.
The Pick: New England Patriots +2.5
