Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 SU,4-5 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date and Time: Sunday, November 10, 1pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field
by Evergreen, Pro Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: PHI +1/GB -1
Over/Under Total: 47
I cant quite put my finger on it but I know there is an issue with this game that basically supersedes anything elseoh yeah, Aaron Rodgers is out. The sun did in fact rise in Green Bay on Tuesday but the Packers will be without their team MVP as they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday. Normally, there are several points to make and several different ways to spin them into betting perspectives but this game is different. There are only a few talents in the NFL that provide impact to a point spread like Rodgers will this week. Without further procrastination, lets break this one down.
So, Seneca Wallace is your starting QB, and youre feeling a bit sick about that. That is understandable. The good people at the online betting sites have actually done you a favor in basically making this game a pick em and most teams find a way to win a good amount of games at home so betting the Pack isnt automatically a bad thing. The hype has gotten to the bettors though and Philly is currently seeing 59% of the action. The wise guys will tell you that is a sure-fire sign to go with Green Bay without even asking a question but I will leave that decision up to you and your wallet.
Here is what Green Bay has going for them. Eddie Lacy is a stud and leads the top-5 rushing attack of the Packers, thats right, top-5. James Starks is healthy and averaging 6.0 yards to spell Lacy and Green Bay will definitely use the run to shorten this game and keep the pressure off of Wallace and the very injured Packer defense. Speaking of that, Clay Matthews will be out again this week and likely so will OLB Andy Malumba. Try-outs may be held starting next week if this gets any worse.
The Packer defense will probably not have to face Michael Vick as he nurses a bum hammy but they do get new NFL record holder for single game touchdowns thrown (7) Nick Foles. I doubt that nickname will catch on but Foles appears more than competent to run this offense and has produced 13 touchdown passes against zero interceptions in six games, including three starts. LeSean McCoy is everything Matt Forte is and Forte just abused the Packers on Monday Night Football so look for a big game out of Shady both on the ground and as a pass catcher against the coverage-averse Green Bay linebackers.
Green Bay is hurt by the short week as well. Wallace was never intended to be anything more than a spot fill-in and he gets one less practice day to get up to speed. The offense will surely need to be simplified and that poses even more problems for a Packer offense that struggled at times to convert touchdowns in the redzone. Lacy and the rest of the backs will need to be special on Sunday to keep Green Bay ahead of the chains but they do get to try the Eagles defense which enters the week dead last in yards allowed. Dont be surprised to see RB Johnathan Franklin as part of a pass-catching package as the Packers will need to change up the looks and keep the pass rush off Wallace.
Again, asking a team to simply win at home is no worse than a 50/50 play in most cases so I wouldnt feel terrible about taking the Packers here as I expect they will be a spirited bunch just one week off the injury to their leader.
The Eagles have played very well on the road, with a 4-1 mark so far this year and I thing they improve that this week. The short week really hurts the overhaul that will need to happen on Green Bays side and there are too many playmakers for Philly. Having Vick play might help the Pack as Foles seems much better equipped to not turn the ball over but I doubt we will see anything other than a lot of McCoy running to soften the defense for play-action. This game should play close as there is still talent on Green Bays side and the run game blueprint has worked ever since the Week 1 loss at San Francisco but just a little too much to overcome and the Eagles pull this one out. Look for a score in the 26-20 range.
Evergreen’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Philadelphia