Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins Pick ATS
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date/Time: Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 1PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Point Spread: PHI -9/MIA +9 (Bovada - 50% Bonus, BEST Live Betting Platform!)
Over/Under Total: 46
The Philadelphia Eagles take on the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. The Eagles sit at 5-6, which would make them dead in the water in the NFC if they didn’t play in a division where the first-place team in 6-5. Still, since coming off the bye, they are 0-2, including a tough-to-watch 17-9 loss to Seattle at home last week. They really need a win, and not getting one here would be a damning indictment. Miami is 2-9, and despite some signs of life lately, they have reverted back to form the last two weeks with two straight 17-point losses, including a 41-24 loss to the Browns last week. Who can get the cover on Sunday?
Laying Points on this Philly Offense
Recent viewings of the Eagles’ offense makes it hard to lay points on them—especially on the road. There has been a wide discrepancy in success from home to away with Carson Wentz. This offense cannot get vertical and playing lately without Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Jordan Howard, and DeSean Jackson; their aerial corps are in tatters. Wentz is in there trying, but with guys like Jordan Matthews and JJ Arcega-Whiteside leading the way, the pickings are slim indeed. Getting Jay Ajayi back could help, and Miles Sanders can be effective in spots, but at home in a must-win game to manage just three points until the game’s final seconds is a really bad look.
Granted, if there were a road-spot where this Eagles’ offense could thrive, this would appear to be it. Giving up a combined 78 points to Buffalo and Cleveland in their last two games speaks volumes of Miami, as does the fact that a look at their defensive starters reveals a shocking lack of recognizable names. All their talent on this side of the ball has either been shipped out of town or are on the IR list. And as they continue to see key pieces fall out of the lineup, we see less and less resistance from this squad.
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Making it Hard to Cover for the ‘Fins
So just as your mind goes to a sideways and compromised Eagles’ offense, one wonders how much it would matter against this Miami “D.” Even struggling offenses can thrive against this group. So can Miami bridge the gap on offense? We see some decent things with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is still able to move the ball aerially, despite Miami also being a bit depreciated at wide receiver. But between DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Allen Hurns, and Albert Wilson, they can move the ball. But let’s face it—despite an occasional spark, having Fitz in there as the long-term solution at quarterback at this point is dicey at best. His INT count is high, and without the line or weapons to make it work, he struggles. Their run-game is laughable, and they continue feeding the rock to Kalen Ballage, who is below 3 yards per carry. At the end of the day, you need some points to make a run at these covers. At one point a respectable 5-4 ATS, the Dolphins we’ve seen the last few weeks will be hard-pressed to deliver for bettors.
Most Compelling Part of This Matchup
I think the nod goes to the Philly defense. Despite a lack of support on the other side of the ball, the Philly “D” still manifests and gives them their only identifiable upside and could make them a contender in the event that the offense suddenly finds its former footing. And since coming off the bye, they have allowed a combined 34 points to Seattle and the Patriots—not too shabby. With Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Nathan Gerry, with playmakers in the back like Rodney McLeod, Malcolm Jenkins, Avonte Maddox, and others, they can still make things happen. Against a pedestrian Miami ground-game, the Dolphins’ offensive line, and a mistake-prone Miami aerial-attack, this could be a spot where this defense reminds us how good it really is.
Eagles: Another Gear or is This It?
With teams like the Eagles, it takes people a lot of time to wrap their head around the deterioration. Granted, last season, they were in a similar spot before rallying in the last part of the regular season and even winning a playoff game. So sometimes, those holding out hope get rewarded. And maybe getting some aerial pieces back on offense will help. But at what point do we resign ourselves to the fact that what we see is the truth? And the truth is that whatever recipe for success the Eagles used to be Super Bowl champs a few years ago has soured.
For the Eagles to come up with 19 points of total scoring in two straight home games coming off the bye is downright lousy, and against a Seattle defense on Sunday that isn’t that stout typically, you’d think they were facing the ’85 Bears. So while there is the recent precedent of them doing an about-face, it might be helpful to wrap our heads around what the Eagles actually are now—a team that can still play “D,” while being handcuffed by a sideways offense that is mired in dysfunction.
Take the Home Dog
Suffice to say, betting on Miami the last few weeks has been a giant letdown, just as they appeared to be playing a lot better. The last few weeks don’t set up great for a cover this week, even getting a lot of points at home against an offense that can’t seem to make it work. A double-digit Eagles win would register zero surprises on the shock-meter. It’s just when you see an offense hit the skids this hard, as Philly has, it makes it hard to lay a number like this. I see Miami getting enough big plays through the air on offense to keep this one in the ballpark against an Eagles’ team struggling to find its stride. I’ll take the dog.
Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Miami Dolphins plus 9 points.
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