Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints Pick

by | Nov 15, 2018 | nfl

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)
When: November 18, 2018, 4:25 PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans Superdome
TV: FOX
BY: Rick Wise

Point Spread: PHI +7.5/NO -7.5

Takeaways From Week 10

The Eagles fell 27-20 to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night in an all-important NFC East showdown, dropping them to third place and two games behind the division-leading Washington Redskins.

The Eagle defense was paper-thin in allowing the Cowboys to pile up 410 total yards, particularly against the run. Philly came into the game with the NFL’s second-ranked run defense, allowing just one running back to go over 50 yards in the first 8 games of the season. The unit did an about face Sunday night though, as Ezekiel Elliot matched his best production of the season, rushing for 151 yards and 1 touchdown and a whopping 7.9 yards per carry average.

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Inconsistency issues on offense resurfaced against Dallas. After totaling 133 yards on the ground in their last outing against Jacksonville, the Eagles reverted to making no real impact running the ball Sunday night, totaling 71 yards on 16 attempts. And Josh Adams, who looked to be on his way to becoming this team’s workhorse carried the ball just seven times for 47 yards.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints continued their explosive ways in a 51-14 throttling of the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, for their 8th consecutive victory.

The Bengals were expected to have their hands full against this Saints offense but, man, this was beyond juggernaut level stuff. New Orleans scored on their first nine possessions (touchdowns on all five of their first half possessions) and didn’t punt the ball once the entire game, piling up 509 total yards for a 6.9 yards per play average. By the half, the Saints had already opened up a 35-7 lead, marking the second game in a row they put up 35 first-half points.

The Saints have been so dominant on the offensive side this season that it’s easy to overlook when they shine defensively. And they sure did against Cincinnati, holding them to 284 total yards of offense for their best performance of the season. Outside of a 75-yard touchdown drive on the Bengals’ first possession, the New Orleans defense shut Cinci out until mop-up time late in the 4th quarter.

The Historicals

The Eagles and the Saints have met 30 times dating back to 1967 and Philadelphia leads the series 17-13-0. Both teams have won five of the last ten matchups, going back to 1995.

Injury Concerns

For Philadelphia, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are RB Darren Sproles (hamstring), T Lane Johnson (knee), CB Ronald Darby (knee), CB Jalen Mills (foot), CB Sidney Jones (hamstring). WR Nelson Agholor is listed as probable after injuring his shoulder against Dallas Sunday night.
For New Orleans, T Terron Armstead (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.

When the Eagles Have the Ball

The Birds failed to establish the run against Dallas and it’s one of the reasons they came up short. In the Jacksonville win they mixed things up well, attempting 30 passes to 28 runs. It was the opposite against the Cowboys, 44 passing attempts to just 16 runs. Depending on which Saints defense shows up Sunday, run/pass ratio could be huge. New Orleans owns the NFL’s 31st-ranked pass defense and its top-ranked run defense, so Philly should be fine going pass-heavy.

When the Saints Have the Ball

This offense was darn near perfect Sunday against Cinci but they used a run-heavy attack, putting the ball in the air 27 times and running it 47 times. Normally they pass the ball at about a 53.5 percent clip versus running it 46.5 percent of the time. Considering the Eagles went from the league’s second-ranked run defense to its 7th after Elliot torched them for 151 yards, coupled with Philly’s 17th-ranked pass defense, New Orleans could probably go either way on Sunday.

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
  • Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games on the road
  • Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
  • Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games when playing New Orleans
  • Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
  • New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans’s last 12 games 
  • New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 5 games at home
  • New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
  • New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
  • New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Rick Wise’s NFL Pick: Philly +7.5

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