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Point Spread Pick: Bucs at Bengals Betting Preview

by | Oct 25, 2018 | nfl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)

When: October 28, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: FOX

Point Spread: TB +4.5/CIN -4.5
Over/Under: 54

Takeaways From Week 7

The Bucs put an end to their three-game skid with a thrilling 26-23 overtime victory over the Cleveland Browns Sunday. Tampa kicker Chandler Cantazaro redeemed himself with the 59-yard game winner after missing an extra point in the first half and a 40-yarder that could have won it at the end of regulation.

Jameis Winston had himself a day, both through the air and on the ground. He connected on 32-of-52 for 365 yards passing and added a career-high 55 yards and a touchdown rushing. But Winston’s stat line on the ground tells only half the story. He had two runs of 14 yards which came at crucial times and kept drives alive. Winston’s rushing TD also marked the ninth of his career, tying him for the sixth most by a quarterback since he came into the league in 2015.

The Bucs were in it to win with their playcalling. They were aggressive, attempting multiple fourth down conversions, went a perfect 3-for-3 inside the red zone and attempted a 59-yard field goal to win it in overtime with a kicker who was a little shaken after missing his two previous attempts.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals dropped to 4-3 after suffering their worst loss of the season Sunday in a 45-10 pummeling by the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bengals offense sank to one of its worst performances of the season, posting 239 total yards and failing to score at all in the first and fourth quarters. A 4-yard touchdown pass from Andy Dalton to C.J Uzomah was the unit’s only points outside of a third-quarter field goal from kicker Randy Bullock. Dalton went 15-of-29 for 148 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, but despite the thin passing output, A.J. Green had some nice numbers with 7 catches for 117 yards.

The Bengal defense all but laid down for the Chiefs, allowing a whopping 551 total yards and big days for Patrick Mahomes and Kareen Hunt. Mahomes finished 28-of-39 for 358 yards and 4 touchdowns while Hunt carried 15 times for 86 yards and a touchdown.

The Historicals

These two teams have met up a total of 11 times dating all the way back to 1976 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the series 7-4. The Bucs have also had the upper hand as of late, winning six of the last seven contests going back to 1995.

Injury Concerns

For Tampa Bay, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game DT Gerald McCoy (calf), DE Vinny Curry (ankle), RB Peyton Barber (undisclosed).

For Cincinnati, listed as questionable for Sunday are LB Vontaze Burfict (hip), CB Darqueze Dennard (shoulder), TE Tyler Kroft (foot), LB Nick Vigil (knee), WR John Ross (groin).

When the Bucs Have the Ball

The Bucs are passing the ball at a pretty high clip this season. Through 6 games, they’ve put the ball up 64.25% of the time and ran it 35.75%. Those numbers probably won’t change much, if at all, against a Bengals defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category (31st in total defense, 29th in passing defense, 26th in run defense 28th in scoring defense). This could be and should be a carbon copy of Tampa’s last game, where Winston went off both through the air and on the ground.

When the Bengals Have the Ball

A.J. Green continues to be one of the best receivers in the league. That’s been a constant in Cincinnati for some time now. Only this season, it’s not translating into enough offensive production. The Bengals rank a lukewarm 21st in the league in passing offense but Green ranks 7th in receiving yards, so Dalton to Green is again a staple of this offense. And considering Cinci’s running game has yet to really emerge this season, coupled with Tampa’s league-worst passing defense, that duo could be huge in this game.

Betting Trends

TB

  • Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Tampa Bay is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games
  • Tampa Bay is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
  • Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
  • Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

CIN

  • Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
  • Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
  • Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
  • Cincinnati is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Weather Report

Temperatures of 50 degrees are expected for this one under overcast skies with 76% humidity and 7 mph WSW winds.

Rick Wise’s Pick

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