Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium
New England is a 3.5-point home favorite over Las Vegas with a total of 45.5. My play is the Raiders getting the points.
Las Vegas hasn’t missed a cover. The Raiders are 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread, and they’ve covered in each of the last three meetings with New England. Even their only loss cashed. They lost 30-27 to Kansas City last week, and late turnovers decided it. This team keeps games close, and a 3.5-point spread gives it room.
Kirk Cousins has the offense rolling. Las Vegas has scored at least 26 points in every game this season. Cousins has thrown 11 touchdown passes through four weeks to seven different receivers. The Raiders rank 12th in offensive EPA per play, and they’ve done it with a weak running game, 29th in rush EPA. When the passing game carries the load this well, the Raiders don’t need the run to keep pace.
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New England’s offense hasn’t kept up. The Patriots average 16.2 points per game and rank 21st in offensive EPA per play. Drake Maye had his best game of the year last week, throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns and running for 54 more in a 29-26 win at Buffalo. But he has seven interceptions through four weeks. Against a Raiders defense that ranks eighth in EPA per play, turnovers could keep the Patriots from pulling away.
The risk is the Raiders’ run defense. Las Vegas is allowing 5.2 yards per carry, and Kansas City ran over them last week. If New England commits to the ground game, it can control the clock and keep Cousins on the sideline. The Patriots are also 7-3 against the spread over their last 10 games. Still, an offense averaging 16 points is hard to trust to win by more than a field goal against a team that has scored 26 or more every week.
The Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
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