Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 4, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field
Los Angeles is a 3-point road favorite over Philadelphia with a total of 44.5. My play is the Eagles getting the points.
The head-to-head history is where I start. The Eagles have won four straight meetings against the Rams: 23-14 in 2023, 37-20 in 2024, 28-22 in the 2024 Divisional Round, and 33-26 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 3 of last season. The Rams haven’t beaten Philadelphia since 2020. Nick Sirianni’s physical style has matched up well against Sean McVay’s teams, and the Eagles’ defensive front has given Matthew Stafford problems in every one of those games.
The market setup is also unusual. This is only the second time since 2022 that Philadelphia has been a home underdog. The line opened at Rams -2.5 and moved to -3 (and -3.5 at some books) after the Eagles’ 27-7 Monday night loss in Chicago. That’s a reaction to one bad primetime game, and it puts the Eagles on the key number at home.
Philadelphia is 2-1 straight up but 0-3 against the spread, and that loss in Chicago was ugly. Jalen Hurts completed 16 of 25 passes for 153 yards with an interception and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season. The offense was without Dallas Goedert and Hollywood Brown, and it ranks 28th in success rate per play. But three straight non-covers is exactly the kind of streak that pushes a line to where the value flips, and Sirianni’s team gets to respond at home against an opponent it has beaten four straight times.
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The Rams are 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread, and their losses show a team that can’t close. They were blown out 27-7 by San Francisco in the season opener in Melbourne. Last week in Denver, they blew a 16-point lead and lost 30-26. Stafford threw two interceptions in that game, including a 66-yard pick-six by Talanoa Hufanga that gave Denver its first lead and another on the final play. Their only win came against a Giants team that lost Jaxson Dart on its opening drive.
Los Angeles is also banged up. Cornerback Jaylen Watson (shoulder) and tight end Terrance Ferguson (ankle) are doubtful, and Puka Nacua (hip) is questionable. If Nacua is limited or out, Stafford loses his most reliable target in a road game against a defense that has handled him in the past.
The Rams’ defense has been good lately, ranking fourth in EPA allowed over the last two weeks, and that’s the biggest risk to this pick. With rain in the forecast and a total of 44.5, this projects as a close, grinding game. In a game like that, getting a full field goal at home is valuable.
SI’s Ryan Gilbert is on the Eagles too, taking Philadelphia +130 on the moneyline and pointing to the Rams’ inconsistency as a road favorite.
Realistic outcomes: Eagles 24, Rams 21 (Eagles win outright); Rams 24, Eagles 21 (3-point margin, Eagles push +3); Rams 21, Eagles 20 (1-point margin, Eagles cover); or Rams 27, Eagles 17 (10-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover or push for Philadelphia.
The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3
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