Redskins vs. Cowboys Pick

by | Dec 28, 2019 | nfl

Washington Redskins (3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Sunday December 29th, 2019. 4:25PM (EST)
Where:AT&T Stadium Arlington, T.X.

Point Spread:WAS +11/DAL -11 (MyBookie)
Over/Under Total: 44.5

The Dallas Cowboys have been the most heavily criticized team throughout the 2019 season. Despite possessing a team ranked No.1 in the NFL on talent by PFF, the Cowboys consistently under-performed in the big games against quality opponents. Several times throughout the season, it appeared that the Cowboys might part ways with Head Coach Jason Garrett after many glaring coaching issues throughout the year. Instead, owner Jerry Jones has stuck with Garrett, but nothing has changed. Despite two separate three-game losing streaks, Dallas had a chance to secure their playoff berth in last week’s road trip to Philadelphia with the NFC East crown up for grabs. Instead of vindication, the Cowboys high profile offense was held to their worst performance of the year in a 17-9 loss to the Eagles nearly ending any postseason hopes.

Technically, the Cowboys are still alive in the playoff race, but they would need the Giants to upset the Eagles on Sunday. More importantly, the Cowboys would also need to take care of the 3-12 SU Washington Redskins inside AT&T Stadium. At first glance, the Redskins might seem like an automatic win, and oddsmakers have posted a pretty lofty spread with the Cowboys favored by 11 points in this must-win situational motivated week 17 match-up. However, I am not so confident the Cowboys should be double-digit favorites over anyone judging by the team we have seen throughout the 2019 season. I mean, this is a team that is struggling to “win” any football games and has lost four of their last five games outright. Albert Einstein famously stated that insanity was doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. Ironically that is what this Cowboys’ team faces under a coaching staff that has completely lost its team, and I think that is an important factor to consider ahead of this Sunday’s meeting with the Redskins.

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Redskins QB Case Keenum to start vs. Dallas

In the last few weeks, QB Dwayne Haskins, along with interim coach Bill Callahan, has brought some life to the Redskins offense. Unfortunately, Haskins went down with an ankle injury in last week’s home game against the Giants after delivering 12 of 15 passes for 133 yards with two touchdowns. The good news is that QB Case Keenum came off the bench and was sharp, hitting 16 of 22 passing for 158 yards with another touchdown in an overtime loss to the Giants. With Haskins sidelined with an ankle injury, Keenum will return to the starting role this week in a familiar spot where he started the year. Callahan, unlike former coach Jay Gruden, has been committed to running the football over the last several weeks with Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson, and Derrius Guice before he went to the IR for the 2nd time two weeks ago.

Unlike the pass-happy attack earlier this season, the Redskins’ offensive scheme has been productive in recent weeks. This is a team that beat the Lions, beat the Panthers, fell narrowly to Green Bay 20-15, posted 27 points in the loss to the Eagles, and then posted 35 points in the overtime loss last week to the Giants. So it’s not like Washington is getting blown out every week. In fact, it appears they have been getting better from week to week. There are still some undeniable talent and personnel challenges, which will be the biggest challenge this week against Dallas. However, we also saw a completely deteriorated Eagles team beat the Cowboys last week, so this will not be an impossible task. With the Washington offense trending in the right direction with more balance and effective plays in the passing game, I believe the Redskins can remain competitive especially if the Cowboys continue to abandon Ezekiel Elliott which has been a common theme from the coaching staff throughout the season.

Redskins vs. Cowboys betting trends

The Redskins have not favored well against the Cowboys losing 6 out of the last seven meetings SU. Washington is also just 1-4 ATS in the previous five meetings against the Cowboys and only 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings against division foes. Meanwhile, Dallas has performed well against division foes with an 8-1 mark ATS in the past nine games against NFC East opponents. The Cowboys have trended towards the “over” in 12 of the previous 18 games and have also hit the “over” in 4 of the last five home meetings against the Redskins.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Redskins +11