Saints vs Rams NFL Analysis & Free Picks for Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams – Week 9 NFL Picks

Game Information Dashboard

Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -13.5 | Total: 44

The Rundown

This number looks steep at first glance, but when you dig into the efficiency splits, it starts to make sense. The Saints limp into Los Angeles at 1-7 after a 23-3 loss to Tampa Bay where rookie Tyler Shough was thrown into the fire for Spencer Rattler. Now he’s got to make his first road start against a Rams defense that ranks second in pressure rate at 28.4% and allows just 4.8 yards per play. That’s a tough draw for a rookie behind a line surrendering pressure on over 40% of dropbacks.

Los Angeles opened -12.5 and was immediately bet to -13.5, crossing a key number as the market recognized the mismatch. The Rams are generating a point every 58 yards; New Orleans needs nearly 68. That gap over a dozen drives translates to about 10 extra points of scoring efficiency. Stafford, healthy and rested off the bye, has tossed 17 touchdowns to just two picks, and the Rams have averaged 29 points over their last four. The market sees a blowout — and the data agrees.

Why Los Angeles Has the Edge

This game comes down to experience and pressure. The Rams’ defensive front is dominating right now, while the Saints’ offensive line ranks 28th in protection. That 13-point swing in pressure differential is enormous. New Orleans converts just 34% of third downs — bottom five in the league — while Los Angeles’ defense allows only 31.8% conversions. That kind of mismatch means more short fields and more possessions for Stafford to work with.

It’s also a bad setup for Shough. He’s facing a defense that disguises looks and brings pressure from depth, not just the edge. Against this group, young quarterbacks don’t have time to process or reset. If the Rams get a two-score lead early, the Saints will be forced into obvious passing downs — exactly what L.A. wants.

The Numbers That Matter

• Points Per Drive: Rams 2.31 (8th) | Saints 1.68 (27th)
• Yards Per Play: 5.8 vs 4.9
• Success Rate: 47.2% vs 39.1%
• Drive Success Rate: 72.4% vs 58.9%
• Explosive Play Rate: 13.8% vs 8.2%
• Three-and-Out Rate: 18.9% vs 28.7%

The Rams’ edges show up across the board. They’re more efficient, more explosive, and far steadier in sustaining drives. New Orleans ranks 31st in red zone touchdowns (47.1%), while Los Angeles punches in 64% of their chances. Over time, that difference in finishing ability is what separates good teams from bad ones — and in this case, good from hopeless.

Market Analysis & Line Movement

Books opened L.A. -12.5, and sharp action quickly pushed it to -13.5. That’s not just public momentum — professionals saw how ugly the Saints’ offense looked pre-bye. The total dropped from 45.5 to 44, signaling the market expects New Orleans to struggle putting points on the board. With 72% of the money on the Rams and only 58% of the tickets, the larger bets are backing the favorite. That’s usually a tell.

Even a potential Puka Nacua limitation didn’t move the spread, because the Rams’ offense doesn’t rely on one piece. They’ve built balance behind Kyren Williams’ ground efficiency and Stafford’s pre-snap control. If Los Angeles starts fast — and they usually do — this could be over by halftime.

The Bottom Line & Prediction

These teams are operating on different tiers right now. The Rams are executing at a playoff level; the Saints are searching for a quarterback and an identity. The efficiency gap is massive: red zone offense, explosive rate, turnover margin, and drive success all tilt toward Los Angeles. Shough’s first start comes in one of the NFL’s toughest environments, against a veteran defense that doesn’t miss assignments. That’s not the recipe for a surprise.

Stafford stays hot, the defense forces a turnover or two, and Los Angeles coasts through the second half. The number’s high, but the matchup makes it justified.

Prediction

Los Angeles Rams 31, New Orleans Saints 10

Best Bets

• ⭐⭐⭐ Under 44 (-120) — Saints offense caps out near 14 points against elite pressure defense.
• ⭐⭐ Rams -13.5 (-115) — Efficiency and red-zone metrics justify the double-digit spread.
• ⭐ Rams 1H -7.5 (-110) — Expect fast start; rookie QB under pressure early.

Game Flow Projection: Rams control both trenches and tempo. If they score twice early, this one’s on cruise control. New Orleans’ three-and-out rate (28.7%) makes sustained offense unlikely. Everything points to Los Angeles covering comfortably with the total staying just under.