Saints vs. Bears O/U Prediction

by | Oct 17, 2019 | nfl

New Orleans Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)

NFL Week 7

Date/Time: Sunday October 20th, 2019. 4:25PM (EST)

Where: Soldier Field Chicago, I.L.

TV: FOX

Point Spread:NO +3/CHI -3 (5Dimes - Bet games here at -105 instead of -110. Saves you huge $$$!)

Over/Under Total: 38

The Chicago Bears return from a week six bye for a homestand against the New Orleans Saints at Soldier Field. After a relatively sluggish start through the opening weeks on offense, the Bears expect to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back this week. He’ll look to get things going against an emerging Saints defense that has held opponents to just 13.3 points per game over the last three games. However, the Bears may not need to produce a lot of points this week to pull out the “W.” The Bears’ defense will get to take aim at a Saints offense minus QB Drew Brees and perhaps without star running back Alvin Kamara. After producing just 13 points in last week’s win over the Jaguars, the Saints will likely need another big defensive effort to keep their four-game winning streak intact.

Saints offensive injuries mounting

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will make his 5th start of the season this week in Chicago and has compiled an impressive 4-0 SU mark through his prior four games. Bridgewater has played well completing 70% passing for seven touchdowns, and two picks on the year to keep the Saints offense moving down the field. While Bridgewater has performed well, the attack is still much better when Drew Brees is under center. Brees decision making, ability to read coverage, and make big throws down the field is critical in a match-up like the Saints will have this week in Chicago. The Bears do a great job of stuffing opponents rushing attacks and notoriously put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks meaning this will be Bridgewater’s toughest challenge to date.

Another significant injury that is worth monitoring as the week progresses surrounds star running back Alvin Kamara. Kamara current ranks 6th in the NFL in all-purpose yards and is easily the Saints’ biggest asset without Brees in the lineup. Kamara is currently dealing with a high ankle sprain and has been kept out of practice all week. Now, most reporters close to the team believe Kamara will play this week, but it’s highly unlikely that Kamara will be at 100%. Furthermore, Kamara playing is not completely guaranteed either. Despite the optimism for his availability Sunday, the Saints signed running back Zach Zenner on Wednesday to add depth at the position in the event Latavius Murray is bumped into the starting role. Therefore Kamara’s status is worth monitoring because it will be a massive blow to the offense’s prowess if he is held out on Sunday.

More picks: Get all of our NFL Week 7 Picks

The Bears offense looks for improvement in week 7

Despite being the best defense in the NFL, though some would argue New England deserves the #1 spot, the Bears are still just 3-2 SU because of horrific play on the offensive side of the football. The struggles of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has been well documented this season. Trubisky missed the Week 5 loss against Oakland due to a shoulder injury but is expected to return to action this week. Trubisky will enter this week’s match-up with just three touchdown passes on the year (all against Washington) and two interceptions. There have been several blown opportunities down the field and little consistency in the passing game. Additionally, Chicago has not provided much consistency on the ground as Head Coach Matt Nagy continues to experiment with a RBBC approach between David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, and Mike Davis.

The aforementioned struggles have provided pitiful results for the Bears. Chicago currently ranks 27th in the NFL, averaging just 17.4 points per game. The offense is averaging only 80 yards (26th) per game on the ground and just 202.8 yards (30th) per game through the air. The hope around the Bears program is that the offense can get back on track following last week’s bye. Specifically, Trubisky has to play better and capitalize on opportunities down the field. My skepticism surrounds the match-up and an emerging Saints defense that is performing exceptionally well. In the last four games, the Saints defense has yielded four turnovers, nine sacks, and have allowed just 13.3 points on average. All signs point to another tough challenge for the Bears offense.

Over/Under trends

Both teams are heavily trending towards the “under,” which falls in-line with my prediction this week. The Bears have hit the under in 8 of their last ten games and are a perfect five for five on the under in their previous five games at home. Meanwhile, the Saints have hit the under in 10 of their last 15 games and five of their last six games on the road!

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Under 38. Pad this play by making it an under 58 by inserting your pick into a giant 20 point NFL teaser at Wagerweb, where you’ll also receive a 50% real cash bonus up to $1000 free!

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