New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Saturday, August 22, 2026
4:00 PM ET, SoFi Stadium
Saturday afternoon’s West Coast game at SoFi Stadium has one of the cleanest Under setups on the entire Week 2 preseason board, and it comes down to the home team’s coach doing what he always does in preseason.
The Saints are 2 to 3-point favorites with a total of 37.5. The line has been relatively stable since opening. What matters isn’t the line movement — it’s who’s on each sideline and what those coaches have done historically in preseason football.
Let’s start with Sean McVay.
McVay is entering his 10th season as the Rams head coach. Over that stretch, his career preseason totals record sits at 10-16-1 to the Under. That’s a 61.5% Under hit rate across 27 preseason games, one of the strongest Under-leaning coaching splits in the entire NFL. McVay has always been extraordinarily conservative in preseason. He rests his starters, calls vanilla playcalling, and treats August as pure roster evaluation rather than any kind of competitive proving ground. That approach has manifested in low-scoring games year after year.
Last week’s Rams preseason opener was a perfect example. The Rams went to Kansas City and won 20-12 over the Chiefs. That’s a combined 32 points, well under the total of 36.5 that the game was priced at. Matthew Stafford — the 2025 NFL MVP — didn’t play. McVay’s second and third-string units ran vanilla concepts. The game finished exactly the way Sean McVay games in preseason typically finish.
There’s no reason to expect anything different Saturday.
Stafford is again unlikely to play at all. Kupp will be resting. Rams starters who did suit up will get one series and hit the sideline. From there, McVay hands the game to backups running an offense designed for evaluation, not scoring.
On the other side, the joint practice angle is critical.
The Saints have traveled to the West Coast for a pair of joint practices with the Rams this week before Saturday’s game. When two teams practice together in the days leading into a preseason game, the veteran starters typically get their real competitive reps during the practice sessions rather than in the game itself. Both McVay and Kellen Moore are going to use the joint practices to give their veterans “good on good” work, which means Saturday’s game becomes even more of an evaluation exercise for backups and roster-bubble players.
Kellen Moore is entering his second year as the Saints head coach. His approach with the Saints is very similar to McVay’s — protect the veterans, evaluate the depth, control the game. Saints starters didn’t play in Week 1 against Jacksonville, and while that game surprisingly went Over 35.5 (the Saints lost 24-20), Moore’s philosophy is not going to change. Tyler Shough is likely to play a series at most.
Two head coaches with similar preseason philosophies, both featuring joint practice buffers, running out backup-heavy rosters against each other’s second and third-team defenses — that’s the recipe for a low-scoring game.
The Rams’ Week 1 game went Under. McVay’s career preseason record is 61.5% Under. The joint practices confirm both teams’ approach. The Saints losing 24-20 last week was an outlier driven by both teams playing more backup snaps in a straight game without joint practice preparation.
I looked at the side too. Saints -2 or -3 is defensible with the offensive output they showed in Week 1, but preseason spreads that small can flip on any garbage-time possession. The total is where the market has been giving us the clearest read all season with McVay coaching, and Saturday is another spot to lean into that trend.
The Pick: Saints/Rams Under 37.5
