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Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick.
San Francisco 49ers (0-3 SU,1-2 ATS) vs.Atlanta Falcons(2-1 SU,2-1 ATS), Week4 NFL Football, Georgia Dome (Field Turf),Atlanta Georgia, Sunday,October 3rd, 2010,1:00 PM Eastern, Fox Network
Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds:SF +6.5/ATL -6.5
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The Atlanta Falcons return home off their upset win over the Defending Super Bowl Champions, looking to defeat the struggling San Francisco 49ers in the Georgia Dome on Sunday. There was a lot of buzz before the season started that the49’s would be much improved and contend for the NFC West Title. After starting 0-3 and looking downright putrid in two of the games, it seems highly unlikelythey will even finish theseason above the .500 mark.
Last week, the 49’s got destroyed 31-10 as 2.5-point road favoritesagainst the upstart Kansas City Chiefs. I really thought the 49’s were the better team and would get off the schneid, but the Chiefs did not back down and could be this year’s truesleeper team.
Alex Smith looked terrible again on the road and the offense did not take many chances. A reason for the 49’s ineffective offense had to be the fact they played it too safe with a lot of check downs and screen plays. That did not work against the fast linebackers that the Chiefs’ possess. The offense of the 49’s, whichracked up 417 yards Monday night against New Orleans, managed only a field goal until the final play from scrimmage. Expect the 49’s faithful to continue calling for the head of offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. Alex Smith knows something has to change right now or it’s going to be a very very long season in San Francisco.
“We were pretty ineffective the entire game,” Smith said. “I don’t know if there is anything to point to. I think it is everything. We were pretty inept all the way around, throwing the ball, running the ball, protecting, penalties, it was all in there.”
The Atlanta Falcons improved to 2-1 with an impressive come-from-behind victory, 27-24 as 3-point road dogs. Matt Bryant kicked the game winner in overtime and all the fans who played the “Over” got to cash their tickets. Bryant had missed the kick on his first attempt,but got to try again when head coach Sean Peyton called timeout. This time it cost them dearly as Bryant went on to make the second kick.
Atlanta defeated the Cardinals 41-7 in their only home game of the season so far. In fact they have played three solidgames, but every team will look bad going up against the Steelers’ defense. Atlanta does a great job of not committing stupid penalties. They rankNo. 3in fewest penalties committed after three weeks, and they have been protecting the ball like they own a security company, with just two fumbles in three games.
It’s no secret the Falconsenjoy oneof theloudest indoor stadiums in the NFL. Atlanta is 7-2 against-the-spread in their last nine home games, and they are 12-3 ATS when playing a team with a losing record at home. Matt Ryan should have a field day going up against a secondary thatallowed Matt Cassel to throw for 250 yards and three scores.
The 49’s are averaging just 72 rushing yards per game. That’s shocking considering they have an athletic offensive line and a studly running back inFrank Gore. I don’t know if it’s the play-calling, scheduling, chemistry, or what,but if things don’t start to get better sooner rather than later, the head coach might be replaced. That would be shame because I really think Mike Singletary is a good coach in this league.
The last meeting between San Francisco and Atlantaoccurred in 2009,and the game was not close. The Falcons were 1-point home underdogs and won handily 45-10, as Matt Ryan torched the 49’s defense passing for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Alex Smith did not start this game as he was nursing an injury. Shaun Hill (Lions) started and passed for 198 yards and one interception. The game sailed “Over” the total as this was a service play for all my customers. The game sets up as a very strong “Over”play once again this season. Read more below.If you missed that article you can read it right here at Predictem.com.
Jeff’s Pickto Cover the Point Spread: 49’s vs. Falcons Over 42
I would expect the 49’s to throw the ball down field more this week. They have very tall receivers going up against a smallishsecondary. The Falcons have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and they too have tall receivers that will matchupagainst slightly smaller than average cornerbacks. The big factorfor this game going “Over” is a system that I have followed for years.
This is my favorite “Over” system in the NFL. Generally speaking when a team from theWest Coastor Mountain Time Zones playa 1:00 PM E game on the East Coast or Eastern Time Zone,theOver cashes a solid 58.5% of the time.
The system is already 2-0 this season. In week one, Tennessee defeated the Raiders 38-13 and in week two, the Falcons beat up on Arizona 41-7. There was no qualifying play last week. When the home team is playing indoors the “Over” has gone 10-2 last 12. Go Over 42 points!