San Francisco 49ers (1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 1:00 PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: FOX, DTV: 711
by Chad Holloway, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:SF +8.5/MIA -8.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
The Miami Dolphins are on a five-game win streak, and this Sunday they could make it six in a row as they face off against the second-worst team in the league. The San Francisco 49ers are on a nine-game losing streak, and now 6-20 since the departure of Jim Harbaugh. The last time these two teams met, which was way back in 2012, the 49ers won 27-13.
The Dolphins are hot, but if last weeks game against the LA Rams where they were dead in the water for 54 minutes of the game — was any indication, the Dolphins have a lot of offensives woes to work through.
Speaking of the Dolphins offense, theyre ranked 26th in the NFL averaging 329.8 yards per game (YPG) and 21.8 points per game (PPG). Their passing game, which averages 211.7 YPG, is ranked 29th, while their rushing game is a lot better averaging 118.1 YPG. Defensively, the Dolphins are ranked 26th holding opponents to an average of 350.6 total YPG (224.5 passing YPG and 126.1 rushing YPG).
Not great numbers, but still theyre finding ways to win. The good news for them this week is that the 49ers are even worse. They have the 30th-ranked offense averaging 309.6 total YPG and 20.4 PPG. Their passing game is second to last averaging just 189.8 YPG, while their rushing game is solid averaging 119.8 YPG, which puts them 5th in the NFL.
Defensively, the 49ers allow an average of 431.1 total YPG (251.6 passing YPG and 179.5 rushing YPG) and 31.3 PPG. Only two others teams have worse overall defenses.
Neither of these teams have shown much life in their respective passing games. As such, each relies on the run game, which theyll do this week. Both should be effective too given the abysmal run defenses. The 49ers are dead last in the league against the run having allowed 1,795 yards on 347 rushes (average of 5.2 yards per carry) through 11 weeks, while the Dolphins arent much better ranked 30th in the NFL allowing 1,261 yards on 291 rushes (average of 4.3 yards per carry).
Chad Holloway’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Theres no doubt in my mind the Miami Dolphins will win this game. They have momentum, the better team, and are playing at home. The question is whether theyll win against such a big line. Against a capable defense theres no way, but against the lackluster 49ers I think they will.
Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi will have a big day on the ground, and that should help open up the Dolphins passing game. Dont look for a huge day from QB Ryan Tannehill, but he should be effective enough to lead his team to victory. Finally, look for both defenses to struggle which should allow the teams to cover the over.
