Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions ATS

by | Nov 11, 2021 | nfl

Seattle Seahawks (3-5 SU, 5-3-0 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-2 SU, 8-1-0 ATS)
When: Sunday, Nov. 14th, 2021, 4:25 pm (ET)
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
TV: CBS

Point Spread: SEA +3/GB -3 (Opened at -5.5)
Total: O/U 49.5 (Opened at 49.5)
Money Line: SEA +150/GB -175
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Key Injuries

Seattle Seahawks: OT Jamarco Jones *Questionable* (Ankle), FS Marquise Blair *Out (Kneecap), RB Alex Collins *Questionable* (Groin), QB Russell Wilson *Questionable* (Finger), RB Chris Carson *Questionable* (Neck), LB Cody Barton *Questionable* (Quad), WR Dee Eskridge *Questionable* (Concussion), S Nigel Warrior *Questionable* (Leg)

Green Bay Packers:QB Aaron Rodgers *Probable* (Covid), TE Dominique Dafney *Questionable* (Hamstring), OT Dennis Kelly *Questionable* (Back), WR Equanimeous St. Brown *Questionable* (Ankle), CB Eric Stokes *Questionable* (Knee), NT Kenny Clark *Questionable* (Back), Isaac Yiadom *Out* (Covid)

Recent Form

It’s been tough sledding for the Seahawks this with a 3-5 record as the NFL season moves past the halfway point. Seattle, despite a subpar season, had their best outing of the year last week in a 31-7 final over the Jaguars (who may have been a little too full of themselves). With the injury to Russell Wilson, Geno Smith stepped in and salvaged a 1-2 record in three starts. Wilson has been cleared to practice this week and has had no limitations in his reps. Heading into Green Bay, the Seattle offense finds themselves 4th worst in the league, averaging 314.0 YPG. Defensively they are the second-worst, only ahead of the Jets, giving up 401.5 YPG.

The Green Bay Packers sit among the top teams in the NFL with a 7-2 record. The Packers had a roller coaster two weeks, getting a huge road win over the Cardinals, who were undefeated, then losing last week in Kansas City without Aaron Rodgers 13-7. Rodgers, who is within Covid protocols, is expected to return to the field this week as he is eligible to join the team Saturday, should he pass his tests. Despite having the reigning MVP, the Packers are a middle-of-the-road offense this year, averaging 333.4 YPG. Their defense, however, has played lights out, ranked 5th best and giving up just 321.2 YPG.

Rodgers Returns

The Packers have dealt with controversy within the organization this past week with QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite all the noise, Rodgers is expected to return to the field Sunday vs. the Seahawks. Even though last week’s loss doesn’t count against Rodgers, it is worth noting that Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 under Matt LaFleur when following a loss. The Packers return to Lambeau this week after a two-week road stretch, and as everyone knows, this Packers team takes things up a notch when the weather turns in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers, in 49 November starts, has an impressive 105 TD to 20 INT ratio. Even though the identity of the Seahawks has been their defense for many years, Rodgers has thrown 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions in nine games. With the Seahawks defense not what it used to be, and a hot Aaron Rodgers in a cold Lambeau, look for the Green Bay offense to carve up the Seattle defense.

Rusty Russ

Russell Wilson, leading up to the injury that he suffered this season, has been one of the NFL’s ironmen. Before missing time, Wilson had the league’s longest consecutive starts with 149. This means that there aren’t any stats to go off how Russ comes back from an injury. Healthy or not, the Seahawks under Russell Wilson have just a 4-4 record against the Packers and are 0-4 at Lambeau Field. In his four starts at Lambeau Field, Wilson has just four touchdowns compared to six interceptions. Wilson, who is a Wisconsin Badgers alumni, ironically has not played well in a state he considers a second home.

Even though Wilson has been cleared to play this week, we may see him start slow. Any quarterback coming off an injury to their throwing hand isn’t going to see perfection, especially should it bother him at any point during the game. Against a Top 5 Packers defense, any struggle to put together drives ending with points with Rodgers on the opposite sideline could make this game get out of hand early. With an injured backfield, this will force the ball into Wilson’s hands where the Packers pass rush will push Wilson out of the pocket and force him to make tough throws against the Green Bay secondary.

Packers Defense Building Momentum

As mentioned, the Packers defense sits in the Top 5 on the season. Under new Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry, the Packers have turned a new leaf and seemingly got rid of some of the holes in their pass coverage from years past. Green Bay has leaned on their young secondary against some good receiving groups, and they’ve stood the test. Mind you, this has been without top CB Jaire Alexander and edge rusher Za’Darius Smith. As players come back into the lineup over time, this Packers defense will only get better, especially when December comes, and nobody likes to play in Green Bay. The Packers defense, which allows just 17.7 points since their Week 1 collapse, has another opportunity this week against a struggling Seahawks offense.

The Historicals

The most recent matchup between these two teams was in the divisional round of the playoffs last season in Green Bay. Thanks to a huge first half, the Packers won that game 28-23 and held on late defensively to advance to the NFC Championship. Looking back at the last five games, the Packers won four of them, all of which were in Green Bay. The game won by Seattle in 2018 was a close 27-24 final in Seattle.

How the Public is Betting the Seahawks vs. Packers

51% are betting the Packers to cover the spread.
57% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 49.5.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Packers are 5-0 ATS as a favorite in their previous five games.
  • The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
  • The Seahawks are 2-10 ATS in their previous 12 games following a win.
  • The Seahawks are 0-6-1 in their last seven games in Green Bay.
  • The Under is 6-0 in the Packers’ previous six games.
  • The Under is 4-0 in the Pacfourers’ last 4 games as a favorite.
  • The Under is 5-0 in the Seahawks’ last five games as an underdog.

Collin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Sunday afternoon’s game features two teams that have built as close to a non-divisional rivalry as you can get. Both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers will take the field after missing some time. Whichever quarterback can come out looking like they haven’t missed a beat gives their team the best chance to win. Given Rodgers’ success at home and Wilson’s struggle in Green Bay, I’m leaning on the Packers to get the job done for Packers Nation. Take the Green Bay Packers to cover the 3-point spread. Bet your Week 10 NFL picks FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).

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