Browns at Patriots Prediction ATS 11/14/21
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 14
Where: Gillette Stadium
Point Spread: Cle +1.5/NE -1.5 (Intertops - Offers the BEST small deposit bonus on the web! Simply sign up through our link, deposit $25, go to their “Special Offers” page, enter code ROOKIE200 and you’ll see an extra FIFTY BUCKS pop up in your account balance!)
The AFC gives us an interesting game to watch and bet when 5-4 New England hosts 5-4 Cleveland Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. Both teams are coming off victories last week, and both teams are right in the running in the AFC playoff race.
The betting lines opened the Patriots at the standard home-field advantage spread, but early action came in on the Browns. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 10 NFL betting odds opened the Patriots as a three-point favorite for this game, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Early betting action then sliced that spread in half, down to 1.5, and bumped that total to 45.
Cleveland Betting Preview
The Browns are 5-4 on the season after beating the Bengals in Cincinnati last week 41-16. Cleveland, a two-point underdog, took the early lead on a 99-yard pick-6, let the Bengals tie the score at 7-7, then used a 17-0 run to lead 24-10 at the half. The Browns then scored the first 10 points out of the locker room and cruised home from there for the divisional road victory.
Cleveland out-gained Cincinnati 361-348 even though the Browns only ran 46 plays on offense and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split. But they also out-rushed the Bengals 153-85 and won the turnover battle 3-0, creating a +13 points differential.
Cleveland has now out-gained and out-rushed seven of its nine opponents this season.
At 5-4, the Browns are tied for third place in the AFC North with Cincinnati, a game and a half behind first-place Baltimore.
On the personnel front Cleveland RB Nick Chubb, one of our favorites, is questionable for Sunday after a positive flu test. But he could still play.
New England NFL Betting Preview
The Patriots are also 5-4 on the season after winning at Carolina last week 24-6. New England spotted the Panthers the first three points of the game but led 14-6 at the half. The Patriots then basically clinched the game with an 88-yard pick-6 midway through the third quarter and held on from there for the win and the money as 3.5-point favorites.
New England only produced 273 yards of total offense last week but only allowed 240 yards of Carolina offense. However, we should probably take that defensive number with a grain of salt, considering that the Panthers offense is terrible. The Patriots also out-rushed Carolina 151-78 and won the turnover battle 3-2, creating a +7 points differential.
New England has actually been out-gained by four of its last six opponents, although it’s also out-rushed three of its previous five foes.
At 5-4, the Patriots trail first-place Buffalo by a half-game in the AFC East. New England also owns the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings - remember, No. 7 gets in these days - by tie-breakers over Cleveland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Denver.
These two teams met most recently two seasons ago, a 27-13 Patriots victory. Some guy named Brady quarterbacked New England that day against Mayfield for the Browns.
More Picks: AFC Game Pick - Bills at Jets Spread Winner >>>
NFL Betting Trends
Home teams are just 63-70 SU, 55-77 ATS in the NFL this season. But that certainly looks like a trend due for a correction.
Overs are 5-4 in Browns games this season, which are averaging 47 total points.
The Under are 5-4 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 44 points.
The Under are 73-61 in the NFL this season.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Normally we’d consider Cleveland a great candidate for a letdown this week, following a big effort last week, but two things that help avoid letdowns are a running game and a good defense, and the Browns have both. And even when they played without Chubb and Hunt (and their starting QB, for that matter) a few weeks ago against Denver, they still ran the ball for 182 yards and won. New England, meanwhile, owns a three-game winning streak, but two of those wins came over terrible teams. Also, that Patriots offense doesn’t exactly impress. We like Cleveland here. Bet your Week 10 NFL play for FREE by scoring a 50% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $500 at Bovada Sportsbook! They also offer rebates on ALL your bets; win, lose or draw and the fastest Bitcoin payouts online! Click here to start enjoying a better betting experience!
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