SNF Picks: New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders

by | Dec 16, 2022 | nfl

New York Giants (7-5-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (7-5-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 18, 8:20 p.m.

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Md.

TV: NBC

Point Spread: NYG +4.5/WSH -4.5 (Deposit $250 and get $250 FREE when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!)

Total: O/U 40.5

Outlook

We just saw this game two weeks ago, and it ended without a winner, as the teams finished in a 20-20 tie. And that’s the only game the Giants haven’t lost over the past month, as their last victory came on Nov. 13 over the Texans. The Giants got off to a 6-1 start that was primarily fueled by a soft schedule, as the only teams they’ve beaten all year with a winning record were Baltimore and Tennessee. Take the AFC games off the Giants’ schedule, and the only three wins left are Chicago, Green Bay, and Carolina, not exactly an impressive list.

Things are a little rosier in Washington because of the win over the Eagles on their schedule, but Washington still has a tough “road to hoe” to make it into the playoffs. With Dallas and San Francisco still to come for the Commanders, getting a winning record and returning to the postseason looks like a difficult task. Both teams have no margin for error now, because with the surging Lions facing one of the softest final four weeks in the league and owning a win over both teams, the loser will likely have just a half-game lead on Detroit for the final playoff spot. That doesn’t even bring up Seattle, which is also hanging around for a wild card berth. The best way to sum up the importance of this game: the winner is still going to have a hard time making it to the playoffs, and the loser almost definitely won’t.

How the Public is Betting the New York/Washington Game

The public is riding with Big Blue here, but the money seems to be leaning in Washington’s direction. The line hasn’t budged despite 62% of tickets taking the Giants, but the total has increased to 40.5 from 40.

Injury Concerns

New York:
Linebacker Micah McFadden (neck) and running back Saquon Barkley (neck) are probable. Linebacker Elerson Smith (Achilles), cornerback Nick McCloud (illness), linebacker Jihad Ward (concussion), wide receiver Richie James (concussion), guard Ben Bredeson (knee), cornerback Adoree Jackson (knee), offensive lineman Joshua Ezeudu (neck), guard Shane Lemieux (toe), defensive lineman Leonard Williams (neck) and tight end Daniel Bellinger (ribs) are questionable. Defensive lineman Nick Williams (bicep), wide receiver Wan Dale Robinson (knee), cornerback Aaron Robinson (knee), safety Xavier McKinney (hand), defensive lineman D.J. Davidson (knee), wide receiver Sterling Shepard (knee), wide receiver Collin Johnson (Achilles), linebacker Darrian Beavers (knee) and offensive lineman Marcus McKethan (knee) are out.

Washington:
Linebacker Jamin Davis (thumb), running back Antonio Gibson (foot), quarterback Carson Wentz (finger), and tackle Sam Cosmi (ankle) are probable. Defensive end James Smith-Williams (concussion), wide receiver Cam Sims (back), guard Andrew Norwell (shoulder), running back Brian Robinson (quadricep), defensive end Chase Young (knee), wide receiver Dax Milne (foot), cornerback Benjamin St. Juste (ankle), guard Trai Turner (ankle) and defensive end Montez Sweat are questionable. Center Tyler Larsen (knee), linebacker Cole Holcomb (foot), tight end Armani Rogers (knee), running back J.D. McKissic (neck), cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields (knee), center Chase Roullier (knee), defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis (knee) and tight end Curtis Hodges (thigh) are out.

When New York Has the Ball

Lost in the tie with the Commanders was the fact that Daniel Jones might have played his best game of the season against Washington. He tossed just six incompletions, ran for 71 yards, threw a touchdown pass, and didn’t make the critical mistake that has tended to hurt New York. But the Giants are at the point where they need Jones to do more than just manage the game in order to win. Letting other teams lose might work against the Houstons and Chicagos of the world, but the Giants don’t have a good enough defense to go out and win the game without any offensive help.

And with Saquon Barkley banged up, the Giants might have some real problems with the ground game. This was already going to be a challenging task because Washington boasts a top-10 run defense, and the Commanders already showed that they could slow down Barkley’s runs. New York needs to get the Jones-to-Darius Slayton connection going from the start, as that was the one thing that Washington really had no answer for. If Jones doesn’t get going, the Giants will struggle.

When Washington Has the Ball

The good news for the Commanders: Carson Wentz is healthy again and eligible to play. The good news for the Commanders’ fans: Washington’s continuing to roll with Taylor Heinecke as the starting quarterback and using Wentz as the backup. Wentz isn’t winning games for this team the way Heinecke is, and Heinecke seems to have a better command of this offense.

That’s not to say that Heinecke has always been good, but he played well last time out against the Giants and threw for 275 yards and two scores. Like Darius Slayton against the Commanders’ secondary, Terry McLaurin really got rolling with 12 catches against the Giants, racking up 105 yards and a score. But the Commanders balanced that out by getting a strong effort out of Brian Robinson, and there’s no guarantee he’s going to be able to play. If he does, Washington will be in much stronger shape.

Betting Trends

These teams have tended to play tight games. In the past six meetings, four have been decided by three points or less or gone to overtime. That includes three of the past five games being decided by one point or less, including the tie two weeks ago. Lower-scoring games have also been the norm in this matchup, as nine of the past 13 matchups between these teams have seen 43 points or fewer scored.

Weather Report

It’s going to be cold near the nation’s capital, but the conditions should be fine otherwise. The temperature will sit at 27 degrees at kickoff, and the wind will blow west-northwest at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Neither of these teams is as good as their record suggests, but Washington has the stronger offense and has played the tougher schedule. The Commanders should have won the first time out when the teams met in New Jersey, and I think they’ll get the job done his time around.

I’ll back the Commanders in a low-scoring game. Note: Wasting money is dumb. Today is a great day to take 3 minutes to learn how reduced juice sports betting can save you money. Why not? It’s FREE!

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