Sportsbooks favor Ravens by 11 vs. Raiders

by | Nov 23, 2018 | nfl

Oakland Raiders (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
When: November 25, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV: CBS
BY: Rick Wise

Point Spread: OAK +11/BAL -11
Over/Under: 42.5

Takeaways From Week 11

The Raiders snapped a five-game losing streak and recorded their second win of the season after a thrilling 23-21 road victory over the Arizona Cardinals Sunday.

The Raiders were up against one of the NFL’s thinnest run defenses, but managed to get the job done with a committee of running backs. Jalen Richard, Doug Martin and DeAndre Washington combined for 152 yards on 33 carries for a 4.6 yards per attempt average and provided the offense with a nearly perfect balance of passing and running plays. The success on the ground took the pressure off Derek Carr and the passing game and kept Oakland in the game.

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Winning the turnover battle meant winning the game. The Raiders haven’t had much success taking the ball away this season and, in turn, haven’t had much success in winning games (The silver and black also won the turnover battle in their only other win this season). On Sunday, Karl Joseph and Gareon Conley intercepted Josh Rosen and the offense turned both into touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson made his first start Sunday stepping in for an injured Joe Flacco and led the Ravens to a come from behind 24-21 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, putting an end to Baltimore’s three-game slide.

Jackson was a mix of good and not so good. First the positives. The rookie quarterback is the best runner of any signal caller in the league and those skills were on full display Sunday. Jackson carried a whopping 27 times for 117 yards, the second-most rushing yards by a rookie quarterback since 1970.

As far as the not so good, Jackson carried 27 times. That’s a lot for a 230-pound running back. For a wiry, 212-pound quarterback, that could be suicide. Jackson under center also means the offense is running the ball a lot more than passing it. Against Cincinnati, the Ravens attempted just 19 passes to 54 runs. That ratio would get them into trouble against a high-scoring offense. Jackson finished 13-of-19 for 150 yards and 1 interception, which doesn’t sound that bad but he constantly displayed that he’s a run first quarterback and that’s a style of play that in the NFL usually leads to a brief career.

The Historicals

These two teams don’t have much of a history. They’ve played each other just 11 times dating back to 1996 and the Ravens lead the series 8-3-0. Baltimore has also had the upper hand as of late, winning 5 of the last 7 going back to 2006.
Injury Concerns

For Oakland, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are CB Leon Hall (back), WR Jordy Nelson (quad), WR Dwayne Harris (chest), RB Doug Martin (ankle).
For Baltimore, listed as questionable for Sunday are QB Joe Flacco (hip), G James Hurst (back), LB Tim Williams (ankle).

When the Raiders Have the Ball
The Raiders typically go with an attack that leans a little heavier on Derek Carr and the pass. They’re throwing the ball at a 61.72% clip, 12th most in the NFL, and running it 38.28% of the time, for a rank of 21st in the league. Against Baltimore’s 2nd-ranked pass defense, 3rd-ranked run defense and top-ranked scoring defense, it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to do much either way. A gameplan similar to last week’s where Oakland relied a little more on the run might be the best approach.

When the Ravens Have the Ball

In his first NFL start, Lamar Jackson provided the Ravens with the change of pace they needed. The jury’s still out on whether he can lead an offense for an entire season but you’d have to say his first outing was a success. The comparisons to Michael Vick and Tim Tebow are many and by that measure, he’s well on his way to a solid NFL career. Jackson outperformed both in their first starts, in the air and on the ground. Joe Flacco is listed as questionable for Sunday, but regardless Jim Harbaugh might be best served to ride things out with the rookie and see if maybe it’s time to hand over the reins. Sportsbooks haven’t overreacted to Flacco’s status as the line has remained steady. 

Betting Trends

· Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
· Oakland is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
· The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland’s last 17 games
· Oakland is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
· Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
· The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland’s last 8 games on the road
· Oakland is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
· Oakland is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
· The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland’s last 6 games when playing Baltimore
· Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
· Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
· Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
· Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
· The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore’s last 8 games
· Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
· Baltimore is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
· Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Oakland
· Baltimore is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Oakland
· The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 6 games when playing Oakland
· Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
· Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland

Weather Report: N/A

Rick Wise’s NFL Pick: Ravens -10.5

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