Super Bowl LII Props
Date/Time: Sunday February 4th, 6:30 PM EST
by Mike M, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Super Bowl prop betting offers an entertaining gaming alternative to simply taking one of the teams by the point spread or rooting for your numbers to hit in a square pool. Below are sixteen prop bets, most of which have little to do with the game itself, but despite their randomness still could carry some real value with odds provided by Bovada.
Yes (-125) vs. No (-105)
Winning the coin toss isnt as much of a precursor to winning the game as one might think, as less than half the teams that have guessed right on the coin flip have eventually gone on to victory with 24 in total. Here are some random trends to go along with the coin toss;
An AFC team has won the coin toss and won the Super Bowl only once in the last 37 years.
An AFC team has won the coin toss with heads and gone one to win the game four times (Baltimore SB 34, Oakland SB 15 and Miami in SB 8 and SB 9.
An AFC team has won the coin toss with tails and gone one to win the game only twice, and the last time was 42 years ago (Oakland SB 11, Pittsburgh SB 9)
The Patriots have lost the coin toss in all five of their Super Bowl wins.
Teams that won the toss with tails have gone 14-13 overall but just 2-6 over last eight times.
Teams that won the toss with heads were an even 12-12 including a 3-1 mark the last four times it has happened.
The last time an AFC team won the coin toss with tails was 32 years ago with Denver in Super Bowl 21.
Teams that have won the coin toss have lost the last three Super Bowls. If it happens again this year it would be the longest streak ever either way.
Mikes pick: Ignoring most of trends above, Yes
Heads (-105) vs. Tails (-105)
Historically Tails has had the upper hand, coming up 27 times compared to heads 24, and has also been the result the last four years in a row. Their current streak preceded the longest one ever, where heads was flipped five consecutive times from Super Bowl 43 thru 47.
If not betting the number or total, other than square pools the coin toss is the most likely event to draw interest in action at any Super Bowl party. Every person there will have picked the same heads or tails answer throughout their entire life and historically shows at least one or two in a large group will be interested in putting a side bet on the coin toss, and it makes a lot more sense to bet one of them then it does to risk paying the vig on a wager placed through another route. Additionally, betting on the coin toss for real is in line with betting on the Pro Bowl, split-squad exhibition baseball games, preseason football and any sporting event from the high school level on down, as one of the clearest signs of a gambling problem.
Mikes pick: Heads, but not through a real source>
Over 1.5 (-120) vs. Under 1.5 (-120)
The over on this wager is one of my favorite of the prop bets and one that I think provides a very strong likelihood of covering. The chance for Bradys family to be brought up an additional time is likely if the incident is still in the news at game time about the moronic, soon to be former, member of the Boston sports media who worked for a local and decliningly relevant cesspool of a radio station and was eventually suspended after taking a shot at Bradys five year old daughter after airing a clip from his new Tom vs. Time documentary.
Mikes pick: Over 1.5
Over 2.5 (-200) vs. Under 1.5 (-120)
I never like giving odds on prop bets, but this one seems even easier than the Giselle one above and well worth the additional investment needed. With the Patriots winning the AFC Championship on the 24th anniversary of Kraft buying the team to a number of possible previous highlights that would likely transition into showing him in the booth (Trophy speeches, dancing at parade ceremonies, etc.) along with the overall number of Super Bowls he has been a part of, this should have zero issue covering.
Mikes pick: Over 2.5
Yes (+110) vs No (-150)
The legendary Michaels is well known for his frequent references throughout his announcing career in regards to the point spread, and with the Super Bowl the most heavily wagered upon game in the sports world, it stands to reason he will mention the line at least once.
Mikes pick: Yes
Over 99 (-10000) vs. Under 99 (+3300)
There arent many announces who like to make over the top statements about athletes or coaches like Collinsworth, and hes always good for plenty of comments such as Only
Mikes pick: Over 99
Yes (-130) vs. No (Even)
The Eagles converted more fourth downs with 17 than any other team in the NFL during the regular season and at 26 had the second most attempts.
Mikes Eagles 4th down conversion pick: Yes
- Rob Gronkowski +750
- Brandin Cooks +900
- Danny Amendola +1000
- Dion Lewis +1000
- Zach Ertz +1000
- LeGarrette Blount +1000
- Alshon Jeffery +1200
- Jay Ajayi +1200
- Chris Hogan +1400
- James White +1400
- Rex Burkhead +1600
- Nelson Agholor +1600
- Corey Clement +2000
- Torrey Smith +2000
- Tom Brady +2800
- Nick Foles +3300
- No Touchdown +6600
- Field +400
Usually when picking selections for first player to score a touchdown I look for anything from 10-1 and over in an attempt find the best value considering the chances of scoring mixed with level of odds given. This year my first choice is easily Rex Burkhead, who is getting incredible odds at 16-1 considering he has scored the first touchdown for the Patriots in six regular season this year, which is even more impressive of a number considering those numbers came in a total of ten games. With New England having score
For the Eagles, I will be going with Alshon Jeffery at 12-1 and Zach Ertz 10-1 as their best value choices, with both integral parts of the Philly offense and both players also make reasonable sense as Super Bowl MVP candidates if you believe the Eagles are going win as they obtain even better value with odds over 20-1.
If you are going to actually bet on the first player to score, it might also make sense to leave a couple extra dollars for the quarterbacks, as you would only need a $3 or $4 bet on either to take home $100.
Mikes picks: Rex Burkhead +1600, Zach Ertz +1000, Alshon Jeffery +1200, Tom Brady +2800, Nick Foles +3300
Yes (+120) vs. No (-160)
Considering his incredible effort not only in Super Bowl 39 when he caught nine passes for 122 years, but more so that he came back to play just seven weeks after breaking his leg and tearing ligaments in his ankle, it is impossible to talk about that game and not bring up his name.
Mikes pick: Yes
Over 1 (+110) vs. Under 1 (-150)
With those odds you would only need to see the statue once to at least push your bet, and considering how important the fictional movie character is to Philadelphias sports history, the fact that at least one bet has already been made between governors and that additional photos available with Patriots fans already having decorated it multiple times in team apparel since the Super Bowl was announced, actually getting odds on this one seems like a gift.
Mikes Rocky statue pick: Over 1
Yes (-165) vs. No (+135)
Seven of the last eight Super Bowls saw the team scoring first go on to win the game, which mirrors the games beginning as well with fourteen of the first sixteen NFL title games also being won by the team that got on the board first.
The Patriots have scored first in 13 of their 18 games this season and have gone 10-4 this year when doing so. The opposing team has scored first in all three of the Eagles losses, and Philadelphia has scored first just once in their last seven games. As I believe New England will win the game and that the results will suit to what has happened previous, I am going with yes on this one.
Mikes Pick for will the team that scores first wins: Yes
Over 5.5 (Even) vs. Under 5.5 (-130)
Pennsylvania native Gene Stretore was assigned as the head referee for the game. The Eagles are 10-1 overall since 2008 in games that he has called, while the Patriots have gone just 3-4 in that same time span in games decided by one possession under the watch of Stretore. Call this one a hunch.
Mikes Patriots penalty pick: Over 5.5
Yes (-120) vs. No (-120)
As much as I think Brady will likely win both considering I am backing the Patriots in the Super Bowl, at even money there isnt much value in taking him to win this bet. Yes, he will likely end up beating Todd Gurley and the injured Carson Wentz for season MVP, and yes four of the last eight Super Bowl MVPs and 27 out of 51 total have been won by quarterbacks, but it still doesnt seem like the best route to go with Yes considering you get not only the Gurley long shot but also all 105 other players involved in the Super Bowl and despite all that are still giving a 20% vig to take Brady.
Mikes pick: No
Now for a few random ones that are more for fun but could still provide an opportunity for profit
- Lime/Green/Yellow +225
- Orange +300
- Red +400
- Clear/Water +400
- Blue +400
- Purple +1000
Orange has the color of choice in four of the last eight Super Bowls, though in the Patriots five wins they have not dumped anything on anyone in three of those and the other two was split between blue and clear/water. If you are going with the Eagles to win Id choose between Orange or the Lime/Green/Yellow and if backing the Patriots I would suggest going with value and taking blue or clear.
Mikes pick for liquid color: Clear/Water
Even (-105) vs Odd (-125)
Nine of the ten playoff games this season have ended in an odd numbered total. Seven of the last nine Super Bowls have ended with an even numbered total. Something has to give.
Mikes pick: Odd
Even (-105) vs Odd (-125)
The last four Patriots games, four of last six Eagles games and the last four Super Bowls have all had the first half points total end in an even number. Might as well pick a different side than above.
Mikes pick: Even