Super Bowl LVII Total Pick & Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs (16-3 SU, 10-9 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3 SU, 7-11-1 ATS)
Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview
Date/Time: Sunday February 12th, 2023. 6:30 PM (EST)
Where: State Farm Stadium Glendale, AZ
Point Spread: KC +1.5/PHI -1.5 (Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE when you use bonus code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!)
Moneyline: K City +110/Philly -125
On Sunday, the biggest event in sports will take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, when the Kansas City Chiefs collide with the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. On one side of the field, QB Patrick Mahomes and Head Coach Andy Reid are trying to put a stamp on being labeled the new NFL dynasty replacing the title once held by the New England Patriots for so many years. The Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV over the San Francisco 49ers back in 2020 and fell short of their 2nd straight Super Bowl title in a 31-9 loss to Tampa Bay the very next year. After getting booted in the AFC Championship to Cincinnati last year, the Chiefs have made their way back to the big game for the 3rd time in the last four years and will be looking for their 2nd world championship.
On the other side of the field, the Philadelphia Eagles return to the big stage after several challenging years following their Super Bowl LII victory over the Patriots back in 2018. Unlike Kansas City, which has been centered around many of the same stars like Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, and others over the last few years, Philadelphia is essentially a completely new team than they were just a few seasons ago, led by QB Jalen Hurts who has arguably been the most improved player in the league over the last few years. Hurts had an absolutely phenomenal regular season in which he threw for 3,700 yards with 22 touchdowns and six picks and also accounted for another 760 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. Hurts’ elusiveness and ability to get the ball down the field to the big play duo of receivers A.J Brown and DeVonta Smith have catapulted the Eagles’ offense into one of the most potent groups in the NFL, averaging 28.1 points per game. On Sunday, the high-flying Eagles will try to flex their offensive firepower once again in a Super Bowl match-up that will center around two very talented offenses.
Super Bowl LVII Betting Total Breakdown
For this preview, I want to focus particularly on the 50-point betting total, which is surprisingly just one point away from being the lowest total in the last five years. In an era of football that favors the offenses, this Super Bowl LVII match-up will once again feature two of the most dangerous offenses in the league. While many are aware of the Chiefs body of work over the last few years, the 2022 Kansas City offense was more methodical this season as opposed to the big play threats witnessed in previous seasons. In honesty, the Chiefs receiving corps is not an overly impressive group on paper. However, TE Travis Kelce remains arguably the greatest TE in NFL history, and QB Patrick Mahomes continues to be the best QB in the NFL. When you combine those talents with the brilliant play-calling from Head Coach Andy Reid, it is easy to see why the Chiefs continue to find ways to amass large point totals and rack up victories.
For this Sunday’s match-up, I believe Kansas City is going to have its hands full against a very tough Philadelphia pass defense. The Eagles led the NFL against the pass during the regular season by yielding enemy opponents to just 179 yards per game. Perhaps more importantly, the Eagles’ ferocious pass-rush was able to rack up 70 sacks on the season, which was a full 15 sacks ahead of the 2nd best sack group in the NFL by way of Kansas City. Needless to say, this Sunday’s challenge for coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes is going to be extremely difficult.
However, the match-up on the other side of the football will not be easy for Philadelphia either. Despite the Eagles’ success this season, they still struggle in the conventional running game, which is the biggest area of weakness for Kansas City. Instead, QB Jalen Hurts will likely need to make plays with his feet and put trust in his receivers to make plays down the field. However, both of those keys of success are easier said than done. Like Philadelphia, Kansas City also has a top-tier pass rush. If they can keep Hurts from continuously extending plays, the Chiefs’ defense should have opportunities to make stops and get off the field.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 7-0 SU in the last seven games
- The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in the last seven games on the road
- The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against NFC opponents
- The Chiefs have hit the “under” in 4 of the last five games
- The Chiefs have hit the “over” in 12 of the last 16 games as an underdog
- The Eagles are just 2-4 ATS in the last six games
- The Eagles are 16-3 SU in the last 19 games
- The Eagles are 7-0 SU in the last seven games against AFC opponents
- The Eagles have hit the “under” in 5 of the last six games
- Kansas City and Philadelphia have hit the “over” in 4 of the last five meetings
Super Bowl Betting Trends
- Betting favorites are 35-20 SU in the Super Bowl
- The betting “underdog” is 7-4 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowl match-ups
- The “under” has cashed in 11 of the last 18 Super Bowl match-ups, including the last four straight
- For point totals listed at 50 points or more (currently listed at 50), the “under” has cashed in 9 of the last 12 Super Bowl match-ups
- The NFC leads the all-time record (29-27 SU) over the AFC in Super Bowl match-ups
- The AFC team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 Super Bowl match-ups
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Total Prediction
During the conference championships, I took the “under” on both games and provided strong rationales for both of those match-ups. Once again, I think bettors are getting value on the “under” due to the prestige of both of these offenses. In reality, both defenses match up extremely well against their opponent, and I do not believe this will be a high-scoring contest. As a result, I am riding with the “under” once again!
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