Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Pick ATS
Date/Time: Sunday, November 28, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Ma.
TV: CBS
Point Spread: Ten +6.5 / NE -6.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
Mike Vrabel and his Tennessee Titans visit Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots for a Week 12 post-Thanksgiving battle. Both of these teams sit at the top of their division and BETANYSPORT.EU has made the Patriots 6.5 point home favorites and set the game total at 44.5. Let’s take the three points with the Titans. Here is the handicap.
Tennessee Is Beating Good Teams
Both of these teams come in with 7-4 records against the spread this year, but the Titans path is much more impressive. Tennessee has played seven teams with winning records coming into week 12, and they are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS in those games. They have been underdogs five times this year and have won all 5 of those games outright. Since Derrick Henry went out, Tennessee has beat the Rams and Saints leading up to the sleepwalking loss last week against Houston. Prior to losing Henry, the Titans beat the Bills, Chiefs, and Colts, all as underdogs. Now they go to Foxboro as underdogs after an embarrassing loss to the Texans. This is a prime rebound spot for Vrabel’s squad. After the very impressive winning streak, with and without Henry, the Titans were due for a letdown, and they got it last week. That is their second loss to teams that have two wins for the 2021 season. They rebounded strongly after their Week 4 loss to the Jets when everyone thought the sky would fall on them, so look for them to rebound again this week.
New England, meanwhile, has also been shocking the league. They are riding a five-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread. The Pats have won those five games by a total of 115 points, so they are now that team that is due for a letdown. The level of competition was nothing special during the five-game winning streak, with the Chargers and Browns being the best competition they faced during their run. Five weeks ago, New England was considered a .500 team that probably wouldn’t make the playoffs. Now they are laying 6.5 points to the current #1 seed in the AFC. That is a big swing from getting 6.5 points against Tampa Bay or 3.5 points against the Cowboys – both at home – as they did earlier this year. I understand Belichick’s teams improve as the year goes on, but this is a little extreme – and it’s time to sell the Pats.
The Titans Offense Will Rebound
Tennessee played two very strong defenses in their first two contests without Henry, and they held their own and took care of business. Last week, after falling behind early in the game, QB Ryan Tannehill was forcing the ball into tight coverage on his way to a four-interception afternoon. The running game had some success after two dismal post-Henry performances. Star wide receiver A. J. Brown left the Texan game with a chest injury, so his status is uncertain, but he is expected to play. Look for Tennessee to get back to a more conservative game plan and for Tannehill to protect the ball better this week. Points will be at a premium this week, and Tannehill will know he has to be smarter with the ball.
New England’s defense is making a case to be considered the best in the league. They are allowing only 16 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. They dominated Atlanta, Cleveland, and Carolina in their last three games, holding them to a combined 13 points. In those games, the Pats manhandled their opponents O-lines. They won’t be able to do that this week against the Titans. Belichick’s D has forced 16 turnovers in their last seven games that has given their offense short fields to take advantage of. The Titans know they cannot allow that to happen and can’t lose the turnover battle.
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New England’s Offense Will Stumble
Patriot Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels has his offense operating as efficiently as any in the league. QB Mac Jones is completing 70% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson form a strong combo to share the rushing duties, while the tight end combo of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith have become the focal points of the ball control passing game. The O-line gives has given Jones time to read the field, and Jones has proven excellent in play-action, and the occasional shot play down the field. But this will be a new challenge for Jones. Up to this point, the Pats have been either underdogs or playing against undermanned squads. This week they are division leaders, playing with a chance to be the AFC #1 seed when the weekends. This won’t be the same as facing the Jets or Falcons. Vrabel will make Jones beat the Titans, and though the rookie has proven to be good through 10 weeks, this is a big step up.
The Titans defense has elevated their game over the past six weeks. They have not allowed their opponents to rush for 100 yards since Week 5 and don’t look for them to let New England break the century mark. The Titans’ secondary isn’t great, but it matches up well with the Patriots’ mediocre wide receivers. They are averaging three sacks per game and will be able to put pressure on Jones and maybe force some mistakes. New England will also protect against mistakes in this game and not put Jones in a position to make a bad turnover, but I expect a rough game for the rookie QB.
Play the Titans +6.5
This is a tremendous “buy-low” spot on the Titans and a “sell high” spot on the Pats. Tennessee has played their best in big games this year, while the Pats have been beating up on bad teams. Vrabel will have his team ready to go into Foxboro and play their best game – which I think is more than rookie QB Mac Jones will be able to handle. Play Tennessee +6½, a little on the Titan money line, and a little on the Under. Bet your Ten/NE pick and ALL your Week 12 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).
