Tennessee Titans(0-1SU,0-1ATS) vs San Diego Chargers(1-0SU,1-0ATS)
Date/Time:September 16th, 4:25PM EST
Where:QualcommStadium, San Diego, CA
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:Tenn +6/SD -6
The Tennessee Titans will look to upset the San Diego Chargers in this week twomatch-up. The Chargerswon in the second game of the Monday Night Football opening double-header thanks to sloppy special teams by the Oakland Raiders. San Diego won the game despite getting out-gained by 63 yards. The three botched puntsby Oakland were key in the game. Tennessee got crushed as 4.5-point home underdogs. The Patriots always play well whenHCBillBelichickhas extra time to prepare. Being it was the first game of the seasoncertainlyqualifies. Tom Brady threw for 236 yardswith two touchdowns, and the defending AFC champion Patriots routed the Tennessee Titans 34-13 for their ninth straight season-opening win. It’s the longest current streak in the league. The PatriotsruinedJake Locker’sdebut as Tennessee’s starter, sacking him twice and forcing two turnovers. He also left the game in the 4thquarter due to an injury, andfinishedwith 229 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception. Locker is listed as ? for this game but is expected to play.
Tennessee has 11 guys listed on the injury report but will get Kenny Britt back from league suspension. Britt isexpectedtosee limited snaps. The big thing to look for in this gameis quarterback play. Philip Rivers has a lot ofexperiencewhile Jake Locker is banged up and still learning the game. The Chargers willmost likely bewithout Ryan Matthewsso expect to see a lot of Ronnie Brown. I wouldalsoexpecta lot of passing from the Chargers’ offense consideringTennessee allowed Tom Brady to march up- and-down the field ontheir secondary. The Titans are just 2-4 ITS (in the stats) in their last six regular season games, while the Chargers are 3-3. San Diego has won more games despite getting out-gained over the last two seasons than any other team in the NFL. The reason why they win is either bad special teams, bad ball handling, bad coaching, or a combination of all three by the opposing team.
I don’t think the Titans will be able to keep up with the Chargers’ passing attack. I would expect the Chargers to use some no-huddle Shotgun formations and try to test the young Titans secondary.AnontioGates might have a huge game as the Titans have struggled at defending elite tight ends. San Diego plays well after appearing on Monday Night Football going 10-4SUand 9-5 ATS off a win. They also own the AFC South going 10-1SUand 10-1 ATS at home.
San Diego has won and coveredin eightstraightgames vs. the Titans. They last played on Halloween in 2010. The Chargers won 33-25 as 6-point home favorites. Philip Rivers threw for 305 yards and twotouchdownsin that game. They held Chris Johnson to just 59 yards rushing on 15 carries. The QB for the Titans was none other than Vince Young, who replaced Kerry Collins after some early struggles. Young finished with 253 yards passing and two touchdowns against a nicked-up Chargers’ secondary.
Lets take a closer look at some series history from mydatabase. When looking at the lastseven games in this series while San Diego has been the home team, the Chargers have won 5 games compared to 2 wins for the Titans. Average points scored per game by San Diego in this situation at homeis 25.7ppgwhile Tennessee has put up 17.6ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 8.1 favoring the Chargers. We do have some line value based on some othercriteriaas well. Look for this line to creep up to 7 by game time.
The Chargers are 18-4SUand 19-3 ATS against the AFC South since the inception of the division (1993). The Titans are 10-18SUand 9-19 ATS against the AFC West since 1993. Tennessee is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games when playing San Diego.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:San Diego Chargers -6 & OVER 43
This one has blowout with a lot of points written all over it. Both teams will be able to move the ball andscoresome points, but it will be theexperienceof the home team that should propel them toa victoryby 8 or more points. I think the Over is a very solid play as this O/U line should be at least 45.
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