Tennessee Titans(6-4SU, 3-6-1ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts(3-7SU, 6-4ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 26th, 1:00pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Point Spread: TEN +3/IND -3
Over/Under Total: 46
This Sunday, there is an AFC South showdown that should be an easy win for one team, but then again, you never know. The 6-4 Tennessee Titans will travel into Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the 3-7 Indianapolis Colts. Tennessee sits in second place in the AFC South with a shot to not only make the playoffs but they still sit in position to make a move and win the division. The Colts are a mess. Two of their three wins on the season were against the two worst teams in all of the NFL…the Browns and 49ers. In my opnion though, this Colts team is right there with those two as for being just bad teams. Can the Colts pull an upset this Sunday and make the Titans playoff run a little tougher? We shall see.
If you just looked at these two teams on paper, you would think that the Titans would be favored by more than the three points that they are. Yes, home field in the NFL is a big deal and also division games tend to be a little closer in most cases, but I still think that on the surface, Tennessee should be favored by more than this. Maybe this is a sign? Maybe the bookmakers want us to jump all over the Titans and that is exactly what is happening. As of early Wednesday morning, 68% of the betting action is on the Titans to get the three point cover on the road. As for the total points, 54% thinks this game stays under but I am not concerned with the over under this weekend…I think we have have ourselves an upset brewing based on what I have seen with the line this week.
Indianapolis is bad…really bad. But no matter how good or bad a team is, these are professional football players and although they may not be playing for a playoff spot, these guys are still playing for pride and future employment in the NFL. The Colts in 2017 are statistically horrid. They are ranked 32nd in points allowed at 28 per game, 25th in points scored averaging less than 18 a game, and the run offense and passing offense are both near the bottom third of the entire league. This team does nothing right. Not only that, but now they will be on their third string QB this Sunday if Jacoby Brissett cannot pass concussion protcol. If Brissett cannot play, the Colts will lean on the arm of Scott Tolzien. This would play right into the Titans favor. If Indy has ANY chance to win, they need to play defense. keep Tennessee’s offense off the field and shorten this game up. If the Colts can keep it low scoring they may have a shot to pull the upset.
Tennessee has played well overall this season. Much of the Titans success has been due to the 117 rushing yards per game average. This will be key this weekend against the Colts. Establishing a run game is what gets the Titans offense going. Mariotta is not the league’s best passer but when plays need to be made, he makes the plays. Against Indianapolis this Sunday, the Titans just need to play mistake free football. No turnovers on their own side of the field, no special teams blunders, and no busted coverages on defense. As long as the Colts are not handed the win, Tennessee should be okay.
There are not many X’s and O’s to discuss in this game. The Titans are the much better team and should win…with ease. However, I am going straight contrarian with this one. This line just seems too good to be true. I have a feeling this could be one of the upsets of the weekend. I believe this is a four quarter battle and I also got this crazy gut instinct that the Colts somehow and someway win this game.
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