Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 4, 2026
1:00 PM ET, M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore is an 11.5-point home favorite over Tennessee with a total of 43.5. My play is the Titans getting the points.
The Ravens’ defense is the reason to fade laying nearly two touchdowns. Baltimore is allowing 26.0 points per game, 21st in the NFL, and ranks 22nd in points allowed per play. The Ravens gave up 23 points to Indianapolis in Week 1, 24 in a home loss to New Orleans as 8.5-point favorites in Week 2, and 31 to Dallas in last week’s 34-31 win in Brazil. This is not a defense that has been shutting teams down, and covering 11.5 requires exactly that.
Tennessee is 0-3, but it has been more competitive than the record suggests. The Titans covered as 7.5-point underdogs in a 24-20 loss to Philadelphia and lost 12-7 to the Giants last week. The defense has been the steady part of this team, allowing 19.7 points per game, 10th in the league, and 315.3 yards per game, also 10th. Robert Saleh’s group keeps games low-scoring, and low-scoring games are hard to win by two touchdowns.
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The spot works against Baltimore too. The Ravens are coming off a long trip to Rio de Janeiro and a draining last-second win, and they host Atlanta on Sunday Night Football next week. That’s a classic sandwich spot for a heavy favorite. First-year head coach Jesse Minter, who took over after John Harbaugh left for the Giants, will want a clean win, but there’s little reason to keep the starters pushing late with a primetime game on deck.
Baltimore is also banged up on the offensive line. Center Ethan Pocic is out, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley is questionable. Tennessee’s defense gets a Ravens front that isn’t at full strength.
The Titans’ offense is the risk here. Tennessee has scored just 37 points in three games (12.3 per game), and Cam Ward and Tony Pollard haven’t produced consistently. But Ward has shown progress, including two rushing touchdowns against Philadelphia. The Titans also play at the fifth-fastest pace in the NFL, which creates extra possessions for a backdoor cover. Against a Ravens defense that has allowed at least 23 points in every game, 14-17 points is a realistic target.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are the reason this line is so big. Henry has 301 rushing yards and six touchdowns through three games, and Zay Flowers’ return gives Baltimore another weapon. The Ravens are averaging 30.7 points per game and will likely win this game. But 11.5 points asks Baltimore’s defense to hold a Titans team that’s been in every game, and that defense hasn’t shown it can.
Realistic outcomes: Ravens 27, Titans 17 (10-point margin, Titans cover +11.5); Ravens 24, Titans 14 (10-point margin, covers by 1.5); Ravens 28, Titans 20 (8-point margin, covers by 3.5); or Ravens 31, Titans 14 (17-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Tennessee.
The Pick: Tennessee Titans +11.5
Take the Titans and nearly two touchdowns against a Ravens defense that’s been giving up points, and bring some extra bankroll into Sunday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Tennessee +11.5 and the rest of your Week 4 NFL picks.
