TNF: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, September 26, 2019 at 8:20PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Point Spread: PHI +4.5/GB -4.5 (YouWager)
Over/Under Total: 45
The Philadelphia Eagles come into Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in NFC action on Thursday Night Football. The Packers should be dug in at home, sitting pretty at 3-0, flexing a powerful defense, and starting to look like contenders again. A 27-16 win over Denver on Sunday kept them unbeaten, and they look to bolster their contender status this week with a win over a Philly bunch that will be pushing hard for a win. After falling at home to Detroit, 27-24, the Eagles slipped to 1-2. Another loss would put a big stain on their early-season, so the Packers should have a game on their hands. Who can cover the number at Lambeau?
Green Bay Looking Good
This is a spot for the Packers to really make an imprint and give themselves a leg up. At home for the third straight week, they’ve been here since beating Chicago in a season-opening Thursday Night week one win. They’re nice and acclimated to the home-environment, riding the crest of three straight wins. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. And they haven’t seen their offense turn over yet. With Aaron Rodgers lying in wait, they still have another gear to hit. It’s big for a team that’s used to winning and hasn’t been doing a ton of that in the last few seasons.
What’s Wrong with Philly’s Offense?
Injuries and mistakes have undermined the offensive efforts of the Eagles this season. A few drops by Nelson Agholor could have made all the difference the last few weeks. An offense that was supposed to be stacked hasn’t hit a high note yet and has undermined itself. Injuries to DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery (probable) have robbed them of some of their vertical ability. The offensive line is underperforming and sometimes at an alarming rate. Facing a Green Bay defense that appears to be coming into its own would be a weird time for this offense to work it out, but that’s what they will be trying to do on the short week. Carson Wentz still has weapons—Agholor when he isn’t dropping sure TD catches, Zach Ertz, and still-useful Darren Sproles. But some new faces in the Eagles offense haven’t been producing a ton—including RB Jordan Howard, as well as rookies JJ Arcega-Whiteside (questionable) and RB Miles Sanders. Before the season, a ton was expected, and we haven’t seen it really manifest yet. But mistakes can be cleaned up, guys who are hurt return, and maybe they can turn it around with some desperation in their minds after the 1-2 start.
This week, however, they face a Green Bay defense that isn’t playing around so far this year. Coordinator Mike Pettine has this group looking crisp—both stout and with the ability to make game-changing plays. We’ve seen signs of a Green Bay coming along at times over the last few seasons, but now it’s coming together. Some additions have already paid off, with Adrian Amos getting a key pick in week one to seal the win and Preston Smith registering 4.5 sacks. Amos is in a secondary that has fared well this season, with Jaire Alexander, Kevin King (questionable), and Darnell Savage doing a great job in the back. After facing Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver, however, they will face a more-vital aerial attack this week in all likelihood. A good start is nice, but this week should offer a portal into whether this Green Bay defense is truly legit. And now dealing with some banged-up guys, we’ll also see how that looks this week.
Will the Philly Defense Step Up?
Through three weeks, the Eagles’ “D” has been lukewarm. At the very least, they haven’t hit the ground running. Having a fluttering offense hasn’t helped, but there are issues that are troubling. Against Aaron Rodgers, this secondary is going to need to be a lot better. Sidney Jones, Rodney McLeod, Ronald Darby, and Malcolm Jenkins have not been pulling their weight. Even Case Keenum put up 380 on them. We don’t see guys like Fletcher Cox applying a pass-rush, as opposing quarterbacks are operating in alarmingly-clean pockets, as they pick apart the secondary. They have given up 27 points in each of their two home games. A lot more was expected, and maybe we’ll see better against a Green Bay offense that has been a bit languid.
Getting the Packers Offense Going
One probably shouldn’t call out the Packers for much of anything at all after a 3-0 start. That’s what they wanted, and they got it, so why complain? And their point totals are rising, going from 10 in week one, to 21 in week two, and 27 last week in the home win over the Broncos. Rodgers has been efficient and hasn’t thrown a pick, but to show they’re real contenders, they’re going to want to see more on that side of the ball. He’s connecting well with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, but they need some more guys to step up. The run-game has been so-so with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams (questionable). At the end of the day, they’re going to need more than just a few pretty good receivers.
Take the Points on the Road Dog
The Eagles will be urgent. That might only go so far. They were urgent to start the season, and we see how that’s gone through three games. But I think Green Bay and their “D” have benefited from playing some offenses that were struggling at the time they met them. The Eagles are also struggling, but bring enough urgency and firepower to Lambeau to give the Green Bay defense more issues than they’ve seen the last few weeks. With a Packers’ offense that isn’t lighting the world on fire, I think it adds up to a game where the Eagles are competitive, hang in there, and emerge with the cover on Thursday.
Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Philadelphia Eagles plus 4.5 points. Make the Eagles a +24.5 underdog pick by inserting them into a MASSIVE 20 point teaser at Wagerweb!
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