TNF Pick: Cowboys vs. Bears Total

by | Dec 3, 2019 | nfl

Dallas Cowboys (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS)

NFL Week 14 Date/Time: Thursday December 5th, 2019. 8:20PM (EST) Where: Soldier Field Chicago, I.L. TV: NFL Network

Point Spread: DAL -3/CHI +3 (BetNow - Massive 50% REAL CASH Bonus up to $1000 FREE! - Your credit card WILL work here for deposits!) Over/Under Total: 43

For the 5th straight time this year, the Dallas Cowboys failed to capture a win against an opponent with a winning record. Instead, the Cowboys were embarrassed by the Buffalo Bills 26-15 in front of a Thanksgiving Day audience despite entering the game as 7 point favorites. With nearly the entire world calling for Jason Garrett’s termination, the Dallas Cowboys remain in 1st place in the NFC East and control of their destiny thanks to an unlikely Dolphins upset over the Eagles in week 13. However, the margin of error has vanished, and the Cowboys find themselves in a must-win situation this Thursday night against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.

Cowboys coaching problems continue heading into Chicago

Last week, I backed the Dallas Cowboys by laying the 7 points against the Buffalo Bills. Before the game, I felt the Cowboys had a considerable advantage in the run game and could exploit the Bills’ defensive weakness with Ezekiel Eliott. The game plan prediction and match-up advantage were insanely accurate. By the end of the 1st quarter, Ezekiel Eliott had eight carries for 56 yards, including one reception for 20 yards. Elliott was dominating breaking tackles and the centerpiece of the Cowboys offense as they marched down the field on the opening position to score a touchdown. The Cowboys ended the 1st quarter up 7-0 with Elliott in full control.

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In an inconceivable turn of events, the Cowboys abandoned the run game and put the ball into the hands of quarterback Dak Prescott. In the 2nd quarter, Prescott threw an interception and lost a fumble, which caused the Cowboys offense to implode while allowing Buffalo’s offense the spark they needed. Elliott received just four carries for the remainder of the game with a handful of checkdown passes as the game script completely changed. It was a prime example of the Cowboys coaching staff failing to provide their players with the best opportunity to succeed, and it continues to happen on a near-weekly basis.

From a betting standpoint, this makes the Cowboys extremely difficult to predict. The Cowboys have performed well for bettors covering the spread in 4 of their last six games. However, they are also extremely inconsistent from week to week. The Cowboys defense looks great one week and awful the next, which is likely another design of poor game planning. So while I would love to tell everyone the Cowboys will bounce back this week in a must-win situation against another opponent where they hold the advantage in the match-ups department, I cannot place any wagers on this Dallas coaching staff until something changes.

Cowboys vs. Bears total prediction

The best play this week will undoubtedly surround the total for Thursday night’s contest, which has been set at just 43 points. Despite the Cowboys’ habit of abandoning the run game, they still provide one of the NFL’s most potent offenses averaging 26 points per game. In this Thursday’s battle at Soldier Field, we get the perfect opportunity to fade the public’s love for Chicago’s defense that has not been nearly as dominant as expected. In fact, the Bears offense has been playing the better football in recent weeks with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky finding some much-needed momentum.

Trubisky has averaged 300 yards over the last two games with four passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown. The turnovers remain concerning, but the match-up is not overly imposing. The Cowboys defense refused to put a spy on QB Josh Allen last week and often dropped back in zone coverage instead of putting pressure on Allen. Allen is a better running quarterback than Trubisky, but the similarities are pretty compelling as well. With the Cowboys electing to drop back in zone coverage more often each week, this is a spot where Trubisky can continue to move the ball down the field. Despite what people may think, nothing about this match-up should provoke low-scoring expectations, and this total is right for the picking.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Over 43. Do you lay -110 on your bets? If so, you’re over paying! Did you know that you can bet on football games at -105? Find this sweet money saving offer at 5Dimes Sportsbook!