by Predictem.com Staff
The act of value betting is when a line or odds have been posted and your getting a better deal than the posted odds.
Ok, now that we’ve established that fact your probably wondering how the heck your supposed to know if your getting good value or not. After all, most recreational football bettors don’t have complex formulas to create their own pointspreads such as those that sharps and betting sydicates use.
One way to sniff out value and not have to be a genius to do it is finding matchups in which a really good team is playing a really bad team. The oddsmakers know that this type of match up gives the perception that the weaker team is going to get crushed and sadly enough the general betting public is going to hit the favorite in the matchup regardless of whether they put out a line of -7 or -10.
Ever heard of parity? Have you noticed that dynasty’s no longer exist and that the National Football League has become very competitive and that each week there are a number of upsets, both straight up and against the spread? We have!
It all boils down to the old addage “that’s why they play the game.” Nobody knows who’s REALLY going to win, that’s why they suit up and go toe to toe. Often times the good team will win and the bad team will cover and the bookie wins. Go figure.
Getting back to value betting, the sportsbooks are forced to put out a line on every game on the weekend’s NFL card. YOU HOWEVER ARE NOT REQUIRED TO BET EVERY GAME. (and if you are your going to get smacked around by the books.) This is the first step to grabbing value. Your already one up on them. You just have to make sure that you only pull the trigger if you think you’ve got a legitimate shot of hitting a bulls-eye.
And hey, don’t get down if you lose some. You win and lose. It’s a grind. Don’t get too high on wins and don’t get too low on losses. The key is beating 52.38% assuming that your betting at -110 odds. (See: Reduced Vig.
Lastly, always remember to not get caught on the wrong side of key numbers.