Washington Redskins (3-3 SU 3-3 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-2 SU 3-2-1 ATS) Week 8 NFL Football, Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, 4:05 PM ET Sunday October 30, 2011 on FOX
by Jason Green, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Was +6/BUF -6
Over/Under Total: 46
This game is being played north of the border in Toronto, but the Buffalo Bills will likely have home field advantage. However, things are not going good for the Skins, who have lost 2 straight and lost their leading rusher in Tim Hightower, who suffered a serious knee injury last week. The Bills have been a surprise this season and they head into this non-conference game rested, as they are coming off a bye week.
Last week the Redskins lost to the Carolina Panthers 33-20 and the Bills lost to the New York Giants 27-24 2 weeks back.
Unlike the loss a couple weeks ago to the Eagles the Redskins did not lose to the Panthers because of inept QB play, but they lost because of their defense. The Washington defense had played well this season, but in the loss to the Panthers they gave up over 30 points for the first time this season and they allowed Cam Newton to pass for 256 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT and rush for 59 yards with 1 TD. At least this week they do not have to face a QB that can run the ball, as even though Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well he is not the most nimble of QB’s.
Fitzpatrick has done well with the less than stellar WR corps he has with Steve Johnson and David Nelson, who are each averaging over 11 yards per catch, but the Redskins, who have a great pass rush with 21 sacks on the season, will get to him in the pocket and he will not have a huge game.
Buffalo RB Fred Jackson has the 6th most rushing yards in the league and he will have a good game facing a Redskins’ rushing defense that gave up 175 rushing yards to the Panthers last week.
Defense, defense, defense, is what the Redskins have to get back to playing and that showed last week. When John Beck took over for Rex Grossman he did play well going 22/37 for 279 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Even though he will be without Santana Moss he has some legit targets in TE Fred Davis and WR Jabar Gafney and he will have another good game facing a Buffalo pass defense that only ranks 30th in the league.
One key player that really has to step up in this game is Skins’ RB Ryan Torain. He will get the majority of touches in this game with Hightower out and, at least, he does not have to face a great run defense with the Bills ranking 30th in the league giving up an 135.7 rushing yards per game. Torain and rookie Roy Helu Jr. will be able to run the ball in this game and that is key to take the pressure off Beck.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Buffalo is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week, and has an Over record of 7-0 in their last 7 games.
In an interesting betting trend the Redskins have failed to cover the spread in their last 4 games facing the Bills.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Man, I have seen this way too many times, as the Skins give me hope and then implode in the middle of the season. I think that trend will continue, as Buffalo is well rested coming off a bye and their offense will give the Redskins’ defense major problems. I think this will be a close game, but the Bills will win and cover the 6-point spread.
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