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Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers Preview.
Carolina Panthers (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
NFL Week 9
Date/Time: 1:00 PM ET, November 4, 2012
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
by Jason Green, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: WASH -3 / CAR +3
Over/Under Total: 46.5
This game pits the last 2 Heisman winners in Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III and while Griffin is playing well Newton is really going through a sophomore slump. It is not all Newton’s fault, as the Carolina Panthers defense is not playing well and even though the Panthers have spent a ton of money for the RB’s of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams Newton is the team’s leading rusher.
In their last games the Washington Redskins were on the road and lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-12 and the Panthers were also on the road and lost to the Chicago Bears 23-22.
In the Steelers game RG3 failed to complete 50% of his passes for the first time all season and he only averaged 5.2 yards per completion. It was not all his fault though, as the Redskins dropped 10 passes in the game and they may really miss TE Fred Davis, who is out for the year with an Achilles injury. The Panthers’ pass defense ranks in the middle of the pack at 15th, but I see Griffin having a solid game in the air and on the ground.
Last week the Redskins had the best rushing offense in the league, but Pittsburgh stuffed the run with RG3 and fellow rookie Alfred Morris, who ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, only combining for 67 rushing yards. Look for them to get back on track in this game facing a Carolina run defense that only ranks 20th in the league. The Panthers did play good run D last week holding the Bears to only 79 yards, but Chicago was down most of the 2nd half and they had to go to the air to come back, which they did.
Newton does have a legit #1 WR in Steve Smith, but he has struggled to be consistent on the season and he has missed many open targets. He did pass for over 300 yards in the loss to Chicago, but he did not throw for a TD and he was picked off twice. I think the Redskins will get back to playing good run defense, but their pass defense, which ranks dead last in the league, will struggle again and Newton will have a good passing game.
Stewart and Williams are simply not getting it done and Williams is Carolina’s 2nd leading rusher and for the season he only has 210 yards averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per carry. The Redskins will play good run D in this game, unlike the Pittsburgh one, and don’t look for Newton or company to gain over 100 yards on the ground.
Newton will have a good game, but I think he and the Panthers will have a couple of turnovers. For the season the Redskins have a turnover margin of +7 while the Panthers are -5.
While the Redskins are only 1-2 at home this season there is a lot of buzz with the play of RG3. On top of that the Panthers are 0-3 on the road this season.
The Panthers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 road games and they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games facing a team with a losing record. The Redskins are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and in their last 7 home games the total has gone Over 6 times.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The underdog always seems to cover in this matchup and it’s likely that it will happen again as the Skins defense is questionable at best. The real value in this game is betting the OVER 46 because the Panthers are bad on that side of the ball as well. I’m anticipating a TON of points being scored in this game. At risk of sounding like a square, I could see this game going over by halftime!
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