Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick

Washington Redskins (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida
TV: FOX
By: Keith Franks, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: WAS +2.5 / TB – 2.5
Total: 51.5
Power Rankings: Washington (19) / Tampa Bay (20)

Takeaways From Week 9

The Redskins ended a three-game winning streak with impunity when they were manhandled at home at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons, a team subjected to many memes as of late that mock their lack of a defense. However, The Dirty Birds stood tall in the Capitol when they hosed the Skins by a score of 38-14.

Tampa Bay comes off a 42-28 loss that was grislier than the score indicates. The Panthers put the Bucs away early in the first half when they went up 35-7 and then they called the dogs off. Carolina has a short week ahead of itself with a road game at Pittsburgh on Thursday night, they could not afford to expose their starters any more once the affair was out of reach. Be that as it may, Tampa Bay looks lost and clueless at this point in the season.

How the Public is Betting the Washington-Tampa Bay Game

59% of the betting public like the Bucs in this spot as a nominal favorite. However, the present figure is a notorious underdog-friendly number as it is works in reverse compared to a -3.5 figure that is usually favorite-friendly. The guise here is that Tampa Bay takers win if the Bucs edge out the Skins by a field goal yet the market is reluctant to believe that such an event can take place.

When Tampa Bay Has the Ball

On paper, Tampa Bay has some talent on the outside with wide receivers Desean Jackson and Mike Evans and for this reason, the Bucs feature the best passing attack in the league (356.6 yards per game) anchored by journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The problem for Tampa Bay is their defense couldn’t stop a Pop Warner team giving up a league worst 32.2 points per game and a hideous 307.1 yards through the air (30th in the NFL). When the Bucs have the ball, they can score as they average 28.6 points per game (7th overall).

When Washington Has the Ball

The Redskins take the opposite approach as they love to batter opponents with a heavy dose of the run. Washington has just the man to lead the 10th-ranked rushing attack (121.9 yards per game) and his name is Adrian Peterson. Half-way through the campaign, AP is on pace to break the 1,000-yard mark on the ground and find the end zone 10 times. With him to round off the battery, another journeyman and veteran with an acumen for nimble feet, quarterback Alex Smith. Smith won’t dazzle you with his arm but he is responsible with the football and makes smart throws. For this reason, he has nine touchdowns on the year to three picks while completing 63.5% of his passes for 1,867 yards. Smith is also a profitable runner in his own right as he has gone for 119 yards on the ground this year and a scoring touchdown. Alex is a very hard guy to sack as a whole and has a penchant for extending plays.

Betting Trends

There are three trends in particular demand a lot of attention in this contest. First, the Road Team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Moreover, the Underdog is also 4-0-1 ATS in the previous five contests. However, the Redskins are 1-4-2 ATS in the last seven collisions between Washington and Tampa Bay.

Weather Report

The forecast calls for an overcast day in the Tampa area complemented by the usually lukewarm tropical conditions that come with The Sunshine State. Temperatures are expected to hang around the 70’s with humidity being high at around 77%. As is as always the case in Florida, there is a slight chance of a shower at some point in the day with an 8% chance of precipitation.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Washington Redskins +125 (Money Line)

In this instance we are getting the better team at the better price. The Redskins have two wins this season in particular that suggest that this team is a playoff-caliber outfit. Washington handed Carolina one of its two defeats this season and they also beat the Green Bay Packers by two touchdowns. However, all this will be cast aside in light of the most recent thumping they took causing the betting public to overreact and hop aboard the Bucs. However, Tampa Bay is in bad form as a whole and they have won just one game in their last six outings which incidentally required overtime to declare a winner. This victory came against the Cleveland Browns, a team presently in rebuilding mode. As a result of the aforementioned overreaction, Washington is undervalued and we can take them outright with a delicious take back.

The Historicals

In the last four meetings between the Skins and Bucs, each side has won twice. The two teams last met in 2015 where the Redskins defeated the Buccaneers in D.C. by a score of 31-30. Tampa Bay fostered a cover as a three-point underdog.

Injury Concerns

In particular, the Redskins have a couple key injuries worth mentioning. First and foremost, tight end Josh Reed is listed as day-to-day with a neck ailment. Reed is the leading receiving option for quarterback Alex Smith. The Redskins are also missing wide receiver Jamison Crowder who served as a great complement to fellow wide-out Josh Doctson. Crowder remains out indefinitely with an ankle injury.