RBD breaks down this UFL betting matchup, analyzing line movement, motivation angles, and quarterback impact in a key picks scenario.

Birmingham Stallions at Orlando Storm
UFL Team Total Prediction

There’s a popular saying, “Desperate times call for desperate measures.”
Last week, in a fit of desperation, the Birmingham Stallions dumped their starting quarterback Matt Corral and brought in Dorian Thompson-Robinson from Orlando.

In a move of further desperation they named him as their starting quarterback despite having just five days of practice with the team.
As I said in my article, “HOW DOES ANYONE BET ON A TEAM WHOSE STARTING QB HAS ONLY BEEN ON THE TEAM FOR SIX DAYS??!!

I laid the -6′ with DC and came away with the win at 45-28, but despite the short week the Stallions new QB accounted for himself very well.
His line reads 312 yards and two TD’s.
He also ran for 40 yards and a TD, making him a dual threat for Orlando to have to game plan for on Sunday.

With some in-game experience with his new teammates and an extra week of practice, Thompson-Robinson should get even better this week.

It’s going to be tough sledding though as he’s facing the number one defense in the league – the Storm are giving up an average of just 15.4 PPG, including a 16-0 shutout of the Stallions in Birmingham two weeks ago.

Before I get to today’s pick let me update the stats to include this week’s three games.
All three games stayed Under the total, making the Ov/Un record now 11-12.
All three games also went to the Fav, making that record now 11-12.

Today we have Birmingham at Orlando.
The Storm opened as a -5′ Fav but have been bent down to -4.
The total opened at 44′ and has been bet up to 45′.
The line moves don’t make much sense. The Storm just beat the Stallions in Birmingham, 16-0, and now the public is betting the Stallions and the Over with Orlando having the home field advantage this time???

I hate to go against the number one defense in the league.
I hate to bet against a Storm team that has to win to keep pace with first place DC who’s one game ahead of them in the standings, and to stay one game ahead of St Louis who’s one game behind them.

I hate to bet when I missed out on the best number in a game where I’m going to need every point I can get.
I hate to bet a team who’s starting a backup center for the first time. The Stallion’s Andrew Raym is out, which opens me up to fumbled snaps and missed blocking assignments.

And I hate to bet on a team that scored exactly 0 points in their last head to head meeting.
(On the plus side of this wager – they can’t POSSIBLY score less, right?)

Despite all that “hate to do it” stuff, I’m going to do it anyway.
I’m going to go with my gut feel and hope the new QB builds on his 300 passing yards and two TD performance and keeps the game close.

I wanted to bet the Stallions team total Over if I got the right number but unfortunately I got no number – I can’t find a single book offering team totals on UFL games.

You often hear sports bettors talk about “must win” situations.
“Must win” doesn’t mean “will win” but that’s exactly where the Stallions find themselves today.
If they lose, they have no shot at making the postseason.

Everything considered, everything about this game points to an easy Orlando win.
Which is just another reason why I’m going the other way.

I have a desperate team in need of a win, led by QB Dorian-Robinson with a chance to stick it to the team that just traded him.
I’m hoping that’s enough to stay within the number in this one.

My play:
Birmingham +4

Recap: 0-1
Record: 6-6

Review:
I bet against St Louis on the Rd but the Louisville Kings played more like Queens, scoring just three points at home. Pit-i-ful.

Making matters worse, I missed an easy winner.
For the first time this season I ran the games through my normal handicapping models instead of just looking at the odds and trying to pick a game that had a bad number. And I overlooked a play.

I say it almost every week here – Houston Gamblers are the worst team in the league.
So why did I not bet against them this week???

It’s a question I asked myself over and over on Friday night as I watched Columbus beat up on the Gamblers, and coast to an easy win and cover.