RBD takes a third swing at the Houston Over, this time with the Gamblers visiting Birmingham in a Week 10 UFL matchup with playoff implications for the Stallions.
Houston Gamblers at Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, May 30th
To paraphrase the great Foghat:
“It’s all behind me, there’s good luck up ahead,
Can’t break what’s left of my bankroll.
Once bitten, twice shy, this time it feels so good, I’d hate to see it fall apart.
The first time I was a fool,
I never knew sports betting could be so cruel.
It happened to me again – Third Time Lucky.”
My week 8 wager – Over in the Houston game.
Result – loser.
My week 9 wager – same as my week 8 wager, Over in the Houston game.
Result – loser.
My week 10 wager?
Same as week 8, same as week 9, Over in the Houston game.
Hopefully, this time when the final score is in I’ll be singing, “Third Time Lucky.”
In week 9 I had over 42′.
I had 33 by the end of the third quarter.
Needed only 10 in the fourth quarter for the W.
And just like week 8 I fell one score short at the end of the game.
It didn’t help that I lost my starting QB when Houston’s Dekker went out early in the second quarter with an injury.
It didn’t help that Houston’s backup, Plumlee, had only been with the team for two weeks.
And it didn’t help that it wouldn’t matter if Plumlee was with them for two weeks or two months, he lacks the physical qualities and the mental aspects necessary to be a good QB.
When it comes to decision making with the ball in his hand he’s low IQ.
Houston head coach (and subgenius) Sumlin had been letting Plumlee throw the ball throughout the entire game, and the Gamblers had the lead. But, after St Louis finally moved ahead on the scoreboard in the 4th quarter, and time was running out, Sumlin decided it was a good time to establish the run game.
In the end, with under a minute left on the clock, he had no choice but to throw the ball and, of course, Plumlee threw an interception in the red zone.
I struggled to stay in the profit zone for the entire season. Entering the final week I have a losing record for the first time at 7-8.
In other words, as The Average White Band would say, “I’ve got work to do.”
I’ve said since week one that Houston is the worst team in the league, talent wise, and that they have the worst coach.
It’s now week 10.
They’ve lost twice as many games as they’ve won.
They have the worst record in the league at 3-6.
They have the worst offense in the league, scoring the fewest points at just 163 over the course of nine weeks.
They haven’t scored a fourth quarter touchdown since week 2, and overall in Q4 have been outscored 37-6.
Like I said, Sumlin = subgenius.
Their week 10 opponent is Birmingham.
The Stallions are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. They do not control their own destiny, they need a win and losses by not one but two other teams, Orlando and Louisville.
One of the main reasons they find themselves in this position is their week two loss, an unexplainable and inexcusable two point loss to the worst team in the league.
Yes, this week’s opponent, Houston.
One of the other reasons the Stallions may fall short of the playoffs is their mediocre play at quarterback.
But the mid-season trade for Dorian Thompson-Robinson put Birmingham back in contention for the postseason.
They were 1-3 without him, and have gone 3-2 with him.
Both teams that Birmingham needs to lose play on Sunday, which means that on Saturday, the Stallions will still be alive and needing a win.
As a handicapper, this means I don’t have to worry about them quitting because their season is over.
The line looks fishy to me.
It opened with the team who is still alive for a playoff spot, Birmingham, at -3′ point Favs over the team that’s eliminated from the postseason and has no reason to play well (and who, quite frankly, sucks.)
I would have made it Birmingham -5.
The opening -3′ it’s been bet down.
The common number is now -2.
And I even see -1′ starting to show up.
That makes no sense.
They’re playing the worst team in the league, with “Dumb-lin” Sumlin at head coach, and backup “Dumb-ly” Plumley at QB.
It should be a double-digit win for the Stallions at home, so what’s up with that line move???
I may buy the side later today or tomorrow but for now I bought the total, this morning, before it goes any higher.
The week two meeting between these two teams saw 42 points scored.
But those were different times, and different quarterbacks for both teams.
Against this Houston defense, who gives up 25 PPG, I’ll need and should get at least 28 points out of Thompson-Robinson at home, in a game the Stallions need to win to have any shot at making the playoffs.
This means I’ll only need 17 points from a Houston team that averages 18 PPG against a Birmingham defense that gives up an average of 23 PPG.
My play:
Houston/Birm Ov 44′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-8
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum later today and throughout the weekend. Like I said, I may add a play on Birmingham Saturday, and I’m 99% sure I’ll be adding a WNBA play for Friday night.
Good luck with your plays this weekend…
