RBD breaks down this WNBA Commissioner’s Cup pick with a two-season double-digit-favorite trend, points-tiebreaker handicapping angles, and a spread that’s moving in the wrong direction.
Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream
A Commissioner’s Cup Pick on the Spread
From my article dated June 3, 2025:
“Let’s talk about incentives, specifically ones for winning.
Even if you’re an obscenely overpaid professional athlete making millions of dollars per year, a $40,000 bonus is still a hell of an incentive. But when you’re a WNBA player with an average salary of $130k, a 40K bonus is HUGE!
And that’s approximately what each player from the team that won the Commissioner’s Cup got last season.
Does that added incentive translate into information sports bettors can use?
Here’s food for thought.
Let’s say the home team is a -6′ Fav and is winning by 6 points with only a minute left on the clock. In a normal game, scoring would now be secondary to using up as much time on the game clock as possible.
BUT if point differentials matter, they’d be wise to keep trying to score to the very end.”
Based on the above, I decided to track Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games for the past two seasons. My thought was that if the tiebreaker was based on points scored, coaches would keep their starters in longer than usual to try and get as many points on the board as they can, which in turn would mean less backdoor Dogs getting the cover after starters were pulled in the 4th quarter like in a normal game.
In 2024, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 4-1 ATS at Hm.
Last season, 2025, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 6-2 ATS at Hm.
That’s a combined 10-3.
The Commissioner’s Cup started yesterday. There was one double-digit Fav on the board. Dallas was -12′ at Hm, facing Seattle. Final score Dallas 79, Seattle 56. The Wings almost doubled what they needed to cover the spread, winning by 23.
There are four Commissioner’s Cup games on the schedule today.
One of them has a Double Digit Hm Fav.
The Dream are -13′.
I’m buying this one now, because it’s going to go higher. Connecticut is just all around awful. The Sun are 1-4 as Double Digit Dogs this season. Four of their eight losses have come by more than tonight’s spread.
The Dream have not been a Double Digit Fav this season, but were -9′ in their last game and won by 20 points.
My play:
Atl -13′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-7
Review:
Missed with the Phx/NY game Over in my last pick.
Looking at my game log I see that three of my seven losses (almost half) have come in games in which I used the Liberty.
Not getting a good read on New York thus far this season so I’ll try to avoid using them for now.
