Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces
Prediction on the Total
You may have seen the video that went viral over the weekend, featuring Caitlin Clark with a big smile on her face, standing behind Angel Reese who had just missed what would have been a game-winning layup.
What the stories accompanying the article don’t mention is it was just one of THREE layups Reese missed in the game.
The always whining and complaining child Reese is the darling of the WNBA – the league office, its refs, announcers, and of course the media.
To counter the viral video and ensuing mockery, ESPN’s top story on their WNBA page was not about the missed lay up that cost her team the game.
No.
It was “The Secrets Behind the Legendary Rebounding of Angel Reese!”
Damage control in full swing.
The announcers and media rarely interrupt their ritualistic tongue bathing of the Syd from Ice Age look-alike to say anything negative about her.
She’s their anti-Caitlin.
The images section of Google is full of side by side pictures of Angel and Syd, and she’s big mad because people keep posting copies of the pictures on her social media pages. She posted a pinned note that said she’s banning anyone who sends her the pictures.
Not surprising that self-deprecating humor is a club that’s not in her bag, entitled, whiny little, b****.
This makes it fun to root against her but unfortunately tonight I’ve got to root for her to score some points because I’m taking the Over in the Dream’s game with the Aces.
My T1 handicapping model says tonight’s game between Atlanta and Las Vegas stays Under the posted total.
The record for this play stands at 12-23.
That’s a solid 65% Fade.
My next step as always when I find a game that qualifies for one of my models is to check out how the individual teams did if they were in this spot previously this season.
And I got some good news when I did.
Atlanta is 2-2 in T1 Unders, no damage there.
But the Aces have been in this spot three times and all three games have gone Over the total.
On Sunday June 28th the Aces qualified against Chicago with a total of 178.
T1 said the total would come in at 167.
The two teams combined for 206 points.
An easy Over, by 28 points.
Wednesday July 22nd they qualified against Washington. The books made the game 164.
T1 said the game would come in around 156.
The game landed on 199.
Another easy Over, by 35 points.
And just 10 days ago, August 8th, Vegas faced Minnesota. T1 said the game would come in at 173, the books made it 182.
The game came in at 185, another Over.
The three spots came in Over by an average of 22 points.
Tonight’s game opened at 180 and it’s been bet down to 177′. A check of the injury report shows Vegas coming in healthy. Atlanta will be missing Brionna Jones (no worries there, the bench can cover for her) and Jordan Canada, a game time decision, unnamed illness. Canada is a big part of the offense, I’m going to need her to play.
As long as the line is moving in my favor I’ll wait a little bit longer before buying it, but not too long. If Canada is announced as back in the lineup the total will tick back up. So monitor it closely throughout the morning.
Only one of Atlanta’s last five games have gone Over, but three of the five have gone over tonight’s number.
Two of Las Vegas’s last five have gone Over but again, three of five have surpassed tonight’s number.
Head to Head these two combined for 169 way back in May but their more recent game, earlier this month, came in at 196, approximately 20 points higher than tonight’s number.
One other factor in my favor – we’re at the end of the season where extra consideration has to be given while handicapping, which teams are quitting because they didn’t make the playoffs and which teams are still playing to win. Both of tonight’s teams are in the playoffs and battling for positioning so we should get a maximum effort from both.
My play:
Atl/LV Ov (wait to buy)
Recap: 0-1
Record: 26-24
Review:
Missed with Chi/Sea Ov in the T1 spot in my last article. Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs and played like it, the Storm starting out with an 11 point Q1 and Chicago putting up a 14 point Q3.
With juice factored in I’m slightly under water for the season, but with plenty of time to bank a profit.
