RBD rides the Commissioner’s Cup double-digit home favorite trend with Minnesota laying the points against Seattle, backed by a 12-3 three-season record.
Seattle Storm at Minnesota Lynx
A Commissioner’s Cup Pick on the Spread
I have a couple of spots to choose from today.
Atlanta and Minnesota are both Double Digit Hm Favs in Commissioner Cup games.
For the financial incentive behind teams playing in Commissioner’s Cup games, and how it can affect the spread and final results, see my article dated June 2nd.
Here are the numbers behind my bet today.
In 2024, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 4-1 ATS at Hm.
Last season, 2025, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 6-2 ATS at Hm.
That’s a combined 10-3.
So far, we’ve had two of them this season.
On June 1st, Dallas was -12′ at Hm against Seattle. They won by 23.
On June 2nd, Atlanta was -12′ at Hm versus Connecticut. They won by 16.
That’s 2-0 this season, making it 12-3 over the last 3 years now.
Note – on June 3rd, the Liberty opened at -10′ over Toronto. They won by 15 but I’m not counting it in the record for this spot.
They opened as Double Digit Favs but the line quickly moved to -8′, and stayed there right up until game time. Yes, I could have counted it and made the record 3-0 this year but I have to stay consistent in what lines I use and how I track records. I use this data to make my bets so I have to keep it as accurate as I can, otherwise I’d only be hurting myself.
The opener was only available for a very short time so I charted it at -8′ and did not include it in the record for CC Double Digit Favs.
First up, today I have Seattle at Minnesota.
Seattle has already been in this Commissioner’s Cup spot once, and lost by 23 to Dallas. In fact, they’ve lost five of their last six games by Double Digits.
Minnesota is coming in hot, winners of 6 in a row. And five of those wins were by Double Digits.
The line opened at Lynx -12′ and is up to -13′.
It’s going to continue to climb so I’m buying it now.
The second CC DD Hm Fav game is Washington at Atlanta. This one’s being played at 6:00 p.m. EST.
If the Minnesota bet wins I have the option of either banking a unit for the day, or pressing it and using Atlanta. If Minnesota loses, I have the option of playing the odds that the spot won’t go 0-2 and trying to recoup my money on Atlanta.
I’m glad the Minnesota spot is up first because I have two problems with the Atlanta game.
One, I used them in my last pick and they lost on the Rd to the Indiana.
Two, Washington qualifies for one of my handicapping models for choosing Wrong Favorites.
WF1 has a record of 4-2 on Rd teams, which points to a play ON Washington today.
(Side note – the Caitlins also qualify for the same WF1 Rd spot today, at New York.)
So I’ve got conflicting stats, the CC DD Fav at Hm spot says take Atlanta, but WF1 says take Washington.
I’ll wait until the results are in on the morning game before I make a decision on whether to play the later game or not.
I’ll do an update in the PredictEm Forum with any changes I make to my card today, including buying Indiana or not. And maybe a prop?
My play: Min -13′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 5-8
Review:
It looks like the team meeting the Fever held after their Double Digit Hm loss as Double Digit Favs to Portland did some good. They came out in their next game against Atlanta and were in control all the way.
But mark my words – it’s only a matter of time before the bubbling teapot of head coach White and Clark boils over again.
